Insights gained from modeling grain yield, nitrate leaching, and soil nitrogen dynamics in a long-term field experiment with spring cereals on fertilized and unfertilized soil over 35 years

IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY
David Nimblad Svensson , Helena Aronsson , Per-Erik Jansson , Elisabet Lewan
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Abstract

Crop models are useful tools for predicting changes in yield and nitrogen losses in response to changes in agricultural management practices and climate. We used a soil-crop model (CoupModel) to interpret trends in yields, drainage, and nitrate leaching observed for two contrasting treatments (fertilized and unfertilized cereals) in a long-term field experiment (35 years) on a sandy loam in southern Sweden. The model was calibrated using a Monte Carlo-based method, in which the 30 best simulations of 10,000 model runs were identified based on multiple criteria. The posterior distributions differed significantly between the two treatments for 6 of the 16 parameters included. For example, the decomposition rate coefficient of the slow organic matter pool was significantly larger in the unfertilized treatment. The model simulated yearly drainage and nitrate leaching well overall, but did not fully capture between-year variations. Although the simulated mean annual nitrate leaching was 1.4 times greater in the fertilized treatment, N leached per unit of N harvest was twice as large in the unfertilized plot. The model simulated substantial decreases in yield for both treatments in 2018 in response to an extremely hot and dry summer, although not as large as that observed. The range in simulated annual N mineralization due to parameter uncertainty was wider in the fertilized treatment. We conclude that model calibration strategies require careful attention to how different management practices may influence decomposition and long-term N balance components in agroecosystems and that more data on especially belowground biomass would help in reducing uncertainties.
在35年的施肥和未施肥土壤上对春季谷物进行的长期田间试验中,通过模拟谷物产量、硝酸盐淋失和土壤氮动力学获得的见解
作物模型是预测因农业管理方法和气候变化而导致的产量和氮损失变化的有用工具。我们使用土壤-作物模型(coumodel)来解释在瑞典南部沙质壤土上进行的一项长期(35年)田间试验中观察到的两种不同处理(施肥和未施肥谷物)的产量、排水和硝酸盐淋失趋势。该模型使用基于蒙特卡罗的方法进行校准,其中基于多个标准确定了10,000个模型运行的30个最佳模拟。在16个参数中,有6个参数的后验分布在两种处理之间有显著差异。例如,未施肥处理的慢速有机质库分解速率系数显著增大。该模型总体上很好地模拟了年排水和硝酸盐淋滤,但没有完全捕捉到年之间的变化。虽然施肥处理的模拟年平均硝态氮淋失量是施肥处理的1.4倍,但在未施肥地块,每单位收获氮的淋失量是未施肥地块的两倍。该模型模拟了2018年极端炎热干燥的夏季导致两种处理的产量大幅下降,尽管没有观察到的那么大。由于参数的不确定性,施肥处理的模拟年氮矿化幅度更大。我们的结论是,模型校准策略需要仔细关注不同的管理实践如何影响农业生态系统中的分解和长期N平衡成分,并且更多的数据,特别是地下生物量的数据将有助于减少不确定性。
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来源期刊
Field Crops Research
Field Crops Research 农林科学-农艺学
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
12.10%
发文量
307
审稿时长
46 days
期刊介绍: Field Crops Research is an international journal publishing scientific articles on: √ experimental and modelling research at field, farm and landscape levels on temperate and tropical crops and cropping systems, with a focus on crop ecology and physiology, agronomy, and plant genetics and breeding.
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