Understanding wildfire evacuees’ perceived safety on their evacuation route: A study of the 2018 Camp Fire

Abstract

Wildfire evacuations are expected to increase, including evacuations from fast-moving wildfires. Risk perception is an important element that determines evacuee decision-making. However, research has not looked at perceptions of safety while evacuees are on their evacuation route. This study addresses safety perceptions while evacuating, and specifically asks what personal, built environment, and evacuation factors contribute to feelings of safety during a wildfire evacuation? Using post-disaster survey data from the 2018 Camp Fire evacuation, we build an ordered logit model which estimates perceived safety as the outcome, accounting for several factors including evacuee proximity to the oncoming wildfire, socio-demographics, evacuation decision-making, and traffic conditions. The results show that later departure timing, shorter travel time, and pre-planning for evacuation routes and destinations to be associated with increased safety while on the evacuation route. These findings have important implications for emergency planning for wildfires, including fast-moving wildfires as well as evacuation modeling for these events. This research is a valuable first step in understanding perceived safety of evacuees while on their evacuation route and modeling evacuee decision-making while on their evacuation route.