High-spatial-resolution slip tendency modeling based on 3D seismic data to assess induced earthquake potential and identify suitable CO2 storage sites

Abstract

We propose a methodology for estimating slip tendency in a target geological setting with high spatial resolution using three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data. This framework assesses the potential for fluid-injection-induced earthquakes and identifies suitable well locations for CO₂ injection by integrating seismic interpretation, quantitative slip tendency analysis, and geostatistical modeling. A total of 242 normal and thrust faults extending to the seafloor were manually identified in the 3D seismic volume, with their dips and strikes determined. The stress tensor and slip tendencies for the faults were calculated mainly using fault geometry as input information for stress inversion, followed by geostatistical modeling. The validity of the slip tendency model was evaluated by comparing the modeled slip tendencies with past earthquake hypocenters. Areas of higher slip tendencies exhibited higher seismicity, indicating an increased likelihood of induced earthquakes in these regions. The mean slip tendency near hypocenters is much higher than the overall grid average. Although there are no CO₂ injection site in the study area, we present a case study for identifying suitable CO₂ storage sites within a 3D seismic data volume. The findings highlight the potential of this approach in advancing our understanding of fault behavior and seismicity within a given area, aiding in the assessment of geological hazards and the identification of slip-prone areas relevant to carbon capture and storage and other fluid management projects.