Rainfall variability, land use and land cover dynamics, and implications for climate risk through a theoretical-conceptual model for the Eastern Northeast of Brazil
Micejane da Silva Costa , José Francisco de Oliveira Júnior , Bárbara Godoy de Barros , Luís Felipe Francisco Ferreira da Silva , Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso , Akza Hellen dos Santos Silva , Ana Carla do Santos Gomes , Maytê Duarte Leal Coutinho , Edson de Oliveira Souza , Michelyne Duarte Coutinho de Morais , Ninu Krishnan Modon Valappil , Vijith Hamza , Sudhir Kumar Singh , Punyawi Jamjareegulgarn , Munawar Shah
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The study assessed the variability of rainfall, land use and land cover (LULC), the influence of meteorological systems and their interactions, followed by the increase in climate risks in Maceió – Alagoas – ENEB. Monthly rainfall data were obtained from the 64-year historical series (1958–2022) of the TerraClimate platform. The TerraClimate precipitation data were validated ANA and SEMARH data, resulting in R2 = 0.72 and r = 0.85. Spatially, the highest rainfall accumulations occurred from April to July (rainy season), with May and June being the wettest months (>800 mm). In contrast, the months from October to February (dry season) and March, August, and September (transition season) recorded lower rainfall, with November and December being the driest months (150–201 mm). The seasonal occurrence of rainfall and the relief in Maceió were associated with areas of climate risk. Maceió is a region vulnerable to extreme rainfall events due to its geographical location, the influence of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mundaú/Manguaba Lagoons, and the interaction with multi-scale meteorological systems. With LULC, there was an expansion of forest areas in rural areas and a reduction of agricultural areas, followed by increased urbanization in neighborhoods in the western part of the city (coastal plateau). The theoretical-conceptual model of climate risk provides essential information for planning and supports decision-making for public policies. The ability to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall underscores the importance of adaptive responses by local communities through the management of public policies and strategies for adapting to climate risk.
期刊介绍:
Papers must have a regional appeal and should present work of more than local significance. Research papers dealing with the regional geology of South American cratons and mobile belts, within the following research fields:
-Economic geology, metallogenesis and hydrocarbon genesis and reservoirs.
-Geophysics, geochemistry, volcanology, igneous and metamorphic petrology.
-Tectonics, neo- and seismotectonics and geodynamic modeling.
-Geomorphology, geological hazards, environmental geology, climate change in America and Antarctica, and soil research.
-Stratigraphy, sedimentology, structure and basin evolution.
-Paleontology, paleoecology, paleoclimatology and Quaternary geology.
New developments in already established regional projects and new initiatives dealing with the geology of the continent will be summarized and presented on a regular basis. Short notes, discussions, book reviews and conference and workshop reports will also be included when relevant.