China's 1+N policy system supports an earlier peak in carbon emissions

Abstract

China is responsible for one-third of the global CO₂ emissions and plays a crucial role in shaping worldwide emission trends. To achieve carbon emissions peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, China has introduced the '1+N′ policy system, detailing objectives across economy-wide, sector, and subsector levels. However, the influence of these proposed targets remains unclear. In this study, the 1+N system was systematically examined, with all objectives identified and assessed to evaluate their anticipated impacts on carbon emissions and energy transition. It was found that full implementation of the targets could result in an early CO₂ peak of 12.7–13.1 Gt by 2026, or even earlier, depending on coal power transition. The planned phase-down of coal from 2026 to 2030 is pivotal for the overall peaking time and level, potentially contributing 46–61% of the mitigation potential. However, the absence of short term guidelines for this target, particularly regarding coal power transition before 2025, creates uncertainty in its implementation and may jeopardize the 2025 emissions targets. Clarifying coal power's strategic role within the ‘1+N’ policy framework is therefore crucial for China to achieve early peaking goals and accelerate global transition efforts.