The independent and joint effects of meteorological factors on influenza: A nationwide time series study in China

IF 6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Urban Climate Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102388

Mengen Guo , Yunfei Zhang , Jianxiong Hu , Aga Zheng , Guanhao He , Xiaokun Yang , Hongting Zhao , Tao Liu , Fengrui Jing , Ziqiang Lin , Yanping Zhang , Maigen Zhou , Wenjun Ma

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Although many studies have examined the effects of temperature or humidity on influenza, few studies investigated other meteorological factors, let alone their joint effects. This study aimed to investigate the joint effects of meteorological factors on influenza in China and identified main factors contributing to the joint effect.

Methods

Influenza cases data during 2015–2019 in 324 prefectures of China were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data were obtained from the Land-ERA5 dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We adopted a two-stage analysis strategy. In the first stage, distributed hysteresis nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to study the exposure response relationship between temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure and influenza, and in the second stage, meta-analysis was used to obtain the exposure response relationship at the national level. Then, a quantile g-computation (qgcomp) model was employed to assess the joint effects of mixture exposure to the four meteorological factors on influenza.

Results

There were 5,093,710 influenza cases included in the study. There were U-shaped relationships between temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and influenza, while wind speed showed a negative effect on influenza. It was also a U-shaped association of mixture exposure to all the four meteorological factors with influenza. The highest risk was observed at the fourth quantile of the mixture exposure (RR 1.21; 95 % CI[1.11–1.32]) in total population, and temperature was the most important contributor (54.15 %) to the joint effect, followed by atmospheric pressure (24.46 %), wind speed (16.52 %) and relative humidity (4.87 %).

Conclusion

The study found that mixture exposure to meteorological factors associated with influenza, and temperature contributed most to the combined effect.

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来源期刊

Urban Climate Social Sciences-Urban Studies

CiteScore

9.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

286

期刊介绍： Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following: Urban meteorology and climate[...] Urban environmental pollution[...] Adaptation to global change[...] Urban economic and social issues[...] Research Approaches[...]