The effects of urban morphology in a city with a tropical continental climate in the context of heat islands

Abstract

Based on the relevance of considering climate change in urban centers, especially in tropical cities affected by extreme events such as heat waves and droughts, such as Cuiabá-MT-Brazil, the aim of this research was to simulate future UHI scenarios and assess the impact of possible changes in urban morphology on micro-scale warming. The results showed that, in terms of microclimate, during the period from 2011 to 2020, urban areas with an urban canyon configuration are those that favor the intensification of the heat island more expressively in the hot-dry period. On the other hand, regions characterized by low-rise buildings in a compact arrangement expressed a cooling island during the winter, spring and summer, ranging from −0.013 °C to −0.53 °C. In addition, the regions identified as having dense tree vegetation stand out as true oases, as they have milder temperatures in all seasons throughout the period studied. As far as the prognosis is concerned, the worst UHI scenarios are observed in the probable transformation of dense tree vegetation into built-up areas, with up to 2.25 °C in winter, up to 1.80 °C in spring and up to 0.95 °C in summer. Estimated and equally relevant changes are observed when switching from low-rise typologies to high SVF and low H/W urban canyon typologies (LCZ2 and 5) and low SVF and high H/W urban canyons (LCZ 4), causing local warming in fall of up to 2.77 °C, winter of up to 1.88 °C, spring of up to 1.37 °C and summer of up to 1 °C.