Andrew Clare , Carlos Manuel Pinheiro , Alberto Franco Pozzolo , João Miguel Reis
{"title":"A refracted process in options: A credit valuation application","authors":"Andrew Clare , Carlos Manuel Pinheiro , Alberto Franco Pozzolo , João Miguel Reis","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112276","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Borrowing from the principle of refraction in optics, we develop an option pricing model in which the underlying asset’s process changes upon touching a barrier, alongside a structural credit risk model. To achieve this, we extend the Black–Scholes and Merton models to incorporate regime shifts when a barrier is crossed. Our credit model demonstrates that if a drop in firm value below a certain threshold triggers a structural change in its policies — that in our framework is captured by a shift in the model governing its time evolution — this affects the initial value of its loans. As the policy change alters the underlying asset process, loan values decrease, and credit spreads widen. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for regime shifts and their impact on loan pricing in dynamic market conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112276"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525001132","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Borrowing from the principle of refraction in optics, we develop an option pricing model in which the underlying asset’s process changes upon touching a barrier, alongside a structural credit risk model. To achieve this, we extend the Black–Scholes and Merton models to incorporate regime shifts when a barrier is crossed. Our credit model demonstrates that if a drop in firm value below a certain threshold triggers a structural change in its policies — that in our framework is captured by a shift in the model governing its time evolution — this affects the initial value of its loans. As the policy change alters the underlying asset process, loan values decrease, and credit spreads widen. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for regime shifts and their impact on loan pricing in dynamic market conditions.
期刊介绍:
Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.