Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target

IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Peichao Gao, Yifan Gao, Yang Ou, Haewon McJeon, Gokul Iyer, Sijing Ye, Xiaofan Yang, Changqing Song
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Abstract

Achieving the 1.5 °C target outlined in the Paris Agreement necessitates coordinated global efforts, particularly in the form of ambitious climate pledges. While current discussions primarily focus on energy and emissions pathways, the fine-scale, location-specific consequences for agriculture, land systems and sustainability remain uncertain. Here we evaluate global land-system responses at 5-km2 resolution in pursuit of the 1.5 °C target through recent country-specific climate pledges. Contrary to previous studies predicting cropland expansion under a 1.5 °C scenario, we reveal a 12.8% reduction in cropland area when accounting for cross-sectoral impacts of climate pledges and land-use intensity. The reduction is most pronounced in South America (23.7%), with the global south comprising 81% of the countries worldwide expected to experience cropland loss. Food security in the Global South faces additional pressure due to a projected 12.6% reduction in export potential from the global north. Many countries are relying on land-based strategies to meet the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement, putting pressure on land resources. Here the authors show a global reduction in cropland area under current climate pledges, with implications for trade and food security.

Abstract Image

Abstract Image

实现1.5°C目标的陆基战略给农田带来的异质性压力
实现《巴黎协定》规定的1.5°C目标需要全球协调努力,特别是以雄心勃勃的气候承诺的形式。虽然目前的讨论主要集中在能源和排放途径上,但对农业、土地系统和可持续性的精细、具体地点的影响仍然不确定。在此,我们通过最近的国别气候承诺,以5平方公里分辨率评估全球土地系统对1.5°C目标的响应。与之前的研究预测1.5°C情景下的耕地扩张相反,我们发现,考虑到气候承诺和土地利用强度的跨部门影响,耕地面积减少了12.8%。减少幅度最大的是南美洲(23.7%),南半球占全球预计将遭受耕地损失的国家的81%。由于全球北方的出口潜力预计将减少12.6%,全球南方的粮食安全面临额外压力。
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来源期刊
Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
40.30
自引率
1.60%
发文量
267
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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