Lubrication or ignition? The role of asymmetric oil trade in Russia's international conflicts

IF 13.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108399

Yuang Panwang , Pan Hu

{"title":"Lubrication or ignition? The role of asymmetric oil trade in Russia's international conflicts","authors":"Yuang Panwang , Pan Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108399","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy trade, especially oil, significantly impacts global economic and political stability. This paper introduces the concept of asymmetric interdependence from International Political Economics into energy economics for the first time and develops a measurement index for oil trade asymmetric interdependence. Using bilateral panel data focusing on Russia and its trade partners, we find that symmetric oil trade significantly reduces the likelihood of interstate conflicts. At the same time, lower-income countries and non-neighboring countries show more significant performance. In addition, the oil trade asymmetric interdependence does not affect the likelihood of conflict in the same way that it does in other markets, such as coal and liquefied petroleum gases. In the analysis of Panel VAR, we find that oil trade asymmetric interdependence is the granger cause of conflicts. In conclusion, we believe that, rather than using energy trade as a weapon for sanctions and international struggle, opting for more symmetrical trade is more likely to contribute to the realization of peace. We therefore call for more equitable trade relations among the nations of the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"144 ","pages":"Article 108399"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325002233","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Energy trade, especially oil, significantly impacts global economic and political stability. This paper introduces the concept of asymmetric interdependence from International Political Economics into energy economics for the first time and develops a measurement index for oil trade asymmetric interdependence. Using bilateral panel data focusing on Russia and its trade partners, we find that symmetric oil trade significantly reduces the likelihood of interstate conflicts. At the same time, lower-income countries and non-neighboring countries show more significant performance. In addition, the oil trade asymmetric interdependence does not affect the likelihood of conflict in the same way that it does in other markets, such as coal and liquefied petroleum gases. In the analysis of Panel VAR, we find that oil trade asymmetric interdependence is the granger cause of conflicts. In conclusion, we believe that, rather than using energy trade as a weapon for sanctions and international struggle, opting for more symmetrical trade is more likely to contribute to the realization of peace. We therefore call for more equitable trade relations among the nations of the world.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.