The existence and impacts of sequential traffic conflicts: Investigation of traffic conflict in sequences encountered by left-turning vehicles at signalized intersections

Abstract

The traffic paths of vehicles, pedestrians and non-motorized traffic at signalized intersections are complicated, and the phenomenon of not strictly obeying the right of way is frequent, which leads to more conflict points at the intersection. Vehicles are prone to Sequential conflicts while passing through intersections, which depletes attention resources, reduces response capacity, and increases accident risk. Therefore, analyzing Sequential Traffic Conflicts at intersections is a key focus of traffic safety research. The purpose of this study is to prove the existence of complex scenarios of sequential traffic conflicts, demonstrate the impact of initial conflicts on subsequent conflicts, and discuss the impact of different class variables on the severity of sequential traffic conflicts. A multi-dimensional severity assessment system was developed, and two nonlinear binary logistic regression models were established: one considering the correlation between conflicts and one assuming independence. Significant variables influencing Sequential traffic conflicts were categorized and analyzed. A typical left-turn scenario was selected for analysis. The results show that the occurrence of the initial conflict significantly influences the subsequent conflict. The model considering correlation outperforms the independent conflict model, confirming the existence of interdependence between conflicts. The severity of the first and second conflicts is negatively correlated, with the second conflict being more severe. Factors such as participant speed, group size, arrival time at the conflict zone, non-motorized vehicle direction, and left-turning vehicles’ willingness to continue crossing significantly affect conflict severity. Based on this, effective strategies for enhancing the safety of sequential traffic conflict scenarios are proposed.