[Spatio-temporal Variation of Landuse Carbon Budget and Carbon Compensation Zoning at County Level in Henan Province].

Abstract

As an important province in China with a large population, agriculture, industry, and energy consumption, Henan Province is in a period of attack and opportunity for low-carbon transformation of its economy and optimization of its energy structure, and carrying out a study on the assessment of carbon budget and carbon compensation at the county level, to promote the coordinated development of a low-carbon economy in central China and to realize China's vision of carbon neutrality by 2060, is important. The study selected 123 county-level units in Henan Province as the research object, based on the land use data of Henan Province from 2000 to 2020, constructed the carbon balance estimation model and measured the horizontal compensation standard with the help of the modified carbon compensation model, studied the spatio-temporal pattern of carbon balance and carbon compensation zoning of Henan Province under the perspective of the main functional area, and put forward the regional development strategy guided by the development of low-carbon economy. The research results demonstrated that： ① From 2000 to 2020, the total amount of carbon emissions from land use in Henan Province first increased and then decreased, with the peak in 2015, and the construction land was the major source of carbon. The amount of carbon absorption continued to grow steadily, and arable land and forest land were the major carriers of carbon sinks. The carbon budget showed significant spatial and temporal characteristics； carbon absorption showed a spatial pattern of "high in the west and low in the east, high in the south and low in the north；" and carbon emissions were spatially characterized by "a concentration of high values in the center and the north and a scattering of low values towards the outside." ② Henan Province exhibited similar spatial patterns in carbon intensity and net emissions, with high values in the central and northern regions tapering off outwards. From 2000 to 2020, carbon emission intensity ranked as follows： national key development zones （1.09） > provincial key areas （0.93） > agricultural areas （0.83） > provincial ecological zones （0.70） > national ecological zones （0.47）. For net carbon emissions, the order was （×10⁴ t）： national key zones （165.94） > provincial key areas （52.55） > agricultural areas （-35.52） > provincial ecological zones （-47.11） > national ecological zones （-60.93）. Conversely, carbon compensation rates（%） were highest in provincial ecological zones （821）, followed by those in national ecological zones （773）, agricultural areas （412）, provincial key areas （198）, and lowest in national key zones （11）. ③ Carbon compensation varied significantly across 123 counties in Henan Province, with a total carbon payment of 9 207.09×10⁴ yuan and offset of 4 819.29×10⁴ yuan in 2020. A total of 45 payment zones and 78 compensation zones were identified, including 20 heavy payment zones and 30 heavy compensation zones. ④ Henan Province was divided into seven carbon intensity control areas, 33 total carbon control areas, 12 carbon balance areas, 12 low-carbon optimization areas, and 59 green carbon sink areas based on main functional areas. A regional optimization strategy was proposed to foster low-carbon economy development in Henan Province. The study offers insights for 123 counties in Henan Province to establish localized carbon compensation mechanisms, supporting the coordinated low-carbon economic development in central China and the pursuit of carbon neutrality.