Projection of future demand for non-cancerous gastrointestinal surgery in Japan: challenges and workforce planning in an aging society.

IF 1.6 4区医学 Q2 SURGERY

Surgery Today Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-20 DOI:10.1007/s00595-025-03027-9

Masakazu Fujii, Toru Nakamura, Yasuyuki Okumura, Yoichi M Ito, Toshimichi Asano, Satoshi Hirano

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose: Japan's aging population poses challenges for balancing healthcare demands and workforce supply. The aim of this study was to project the future demand for major non-cancerous gastrointestinal surgeries such as cholecystectomy, inguinal hernia repair, and appendectomy up until 2050 and examine the impact of a shrinking working-age population on surgical workforce needs.

Methods: We used data from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan Open Data (2018-2022) and population projections to calculate age- and sex-specific procedure rates. These rates were applied to population forecasts for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under high, low, and average demand scenarios. Working-age population (15-65 years) trends were included for comparison.

Results: The projected demand for appendectomy, most common in people aged 20-39, is expected to decrease by 16.6% by 2050, whereas cholecystectomy and inguinal hernia repair demand, concentrated in people aged 60 and above, are projected to decrease by 5.8% and 7.1%, respectively. The working-age population is anticipated to decline by 25.3%, potentially posing significant challenges to maintaining an adequate surgical workforce.

Conclusions: While the absolute number of gastrointestinal surgeries is projected to decrease, Japan faces substantial demographic changes that may impact surgical workforce capacity. Strategic workforce planning is essential to address these demographic challenges.

查看原文本刊更多论文

日本未来对非癌性胃肠手术的需求预测：老龄化社会的挑战和劳动力规划。

目的：日本人口老龄化对平衡医疗保健需求和劳动力供应构成挑战。本研究的目的是预测到2050年对重大非癌性胃肠道手术（如胆囊切除术、腹股沟疝修补术和阑尾切除术）的未来需求，并研究工作年龄人口减少对外科劳动力需求的影响。方法：我们使用日本开放数据的国家健康保险索赔和特定健康检查数据库（2018-2022）和人口预测的数据来计算年龄和性别特定的手术率。这些比率适用于2030年、2040年和2050年在高、低和平均需求情景下的人口预测。工作年龄人口（15-65岁）的趋势也包括在内以供比较。结果：预计到2050年，以20-39岁人群为主的阑尾切除术需求将下降16.6%，而以60岁及以上人群为主的胆囊切除术和腹股沟疝修补需求将分别下降5.8%和7.1%。预计劳动年龄人口将下降25.3%，这可能对维持足够的外科劳动力构成重大挑战。结论：虽然胃肠手术的绝对数量预计会减少，但日本面临着可能影响外科劳动力能力的重大人口变化。战略性劳动力规划对于应对这些人口挑战至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Surgery Today 医学-外科

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

4.00%

发文量

208

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： Surgery Today is the official journal of the Japan Surgical Society. The main purpose of the journal is to provide a place for the publication of high-quality papers documenting recent advances and new developments in all fields of surgery, both clinical and experimental. The journal welcomes original papers, review articles, and short communications, as well as short technical reports("How to do it"). The "How to do it" section will includes short articles on methods or techniques recommended for practical surgery. Papers submitted to the journal are reviewed by an international editorial board. Field of interest: All fields of surgery.