Spatiotemporal variation of under-5 children diarrhea incidence and associated meteorological factors in central Gondar zone, Northwest Ethiopia. A retrospective time series study.

Abstract

Under-5 children's diarrhea is a significant public health threat, and the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that it is the second leading cause of children's death worldwide. In this study area, little is known about the spatiotemporal distribution of under-5 children's diarrhea incidence rates. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the spatiotemporal variation under-5 diarrhea incidence and associated meteorological factors in the Central Gondar Zone. The data for under-5 diarrhea were obtained from Central Gondar Zone Health Department diarrhea reports from January 2013 to December 2022. Climatic variables were obtained from the West Amhara Meteorological Agency. Every district was covered and given a geocode. The spatial data were created in ArcGIS 10.8.1. Global and local spatial autocorrelation were used to detect hot spots. The Poisson model, which applies the Kulldorff methods and SaTScan™9.6, was used to analyze the purely temporal, spatial, and space-time clusters. Spearman correlation and bivariate and multivariable negative binomial regressions were used to analyze the relationships between under-5 diarrhea cases and climatic factors. This study revealed spatial variation in the incidence of under-5 diarrhea, where Dembia, Gondar Zuria, and Chilga districts and Gondar Zuria, East Dembia, and Lay Armacho districts were high-rate spatial clusters between 2013 and 2018 and between 2019 and 2022, respectively. A temporal scan statistic identified 2014-2016 and 2020-2021 as risk periods across all districts. Spatiotemporal scan statistics revealed high-rate clusters in Dembia, Gondar Zuria, Chilga, Wegera, Alefa, Lay Armacho, and West Belesa between 2013 and 2018, and Gondar City, Gondar Zuria, East Dembia, Lay Armacho, and Alefa between 2019 and 2022. This study also revealed positive correlations between the number of individuals with under-5 diarrhea and the average monthly temperature at 0 and 2 lag months, with values of 1.0209 (1.0034-1.0387) and 1.0202 (1.0022-1.0385), respectively. In addition, there was a negative correlation between the number of under-5 diarrhea events and the average monthly rainfall at 0 and 2 lag months, with values of 0.999 (0.9985-0.9996) and 0.9992 (0.9987-0.9997), respectively. In conclusion, there has been spatiotemporal variability in the incidence of diarrhea in children under-5 years of age in the Central Gondar Zone. The mean monthly temperature and rainfall were positively and negatively related to the incidence of diarrhea in children under-5 years of age. Season-specific intervention strategies should be developed to reduce under-5 morbidity and mortality.