[Risk factors and development of a prediction model of enteral feeding intolerance in critically ill children].

Abstract

Objectives: To explore the risk factors of feeding intolerance (FI) in critically ill children receiving enteral nutrition (EN) and to construct a prediction nomogram model for FI.

Methods: A retrospective study was conducted to collect data from critically ill children admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit of Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, between January 2015 and October 2020. The children were randomly divided into a training set (346 cases) and a validation set (147 cases). The training set was further divided into a tolerance group (216 cases) and an intolerance group (130 cases). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors for FI in critically ill children receiving EN. A nomogram was constructed using R language, which was then validated on the validation set. The model's discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curves.

Results: Duration of bed rest, shock, gastrointestinal decompression, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and combined parenteral nutrition were identified as independent risk factors for FI in critically ill children receiving EN (P<0.05). Based on these factors, a nomogram prediction model for FI in critically ill children receiving EN was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the training set and validation set was 0.934 (95%CI: 0.906-0.963) and 0.852 (95%CI: 0.787-0.917), respectively, indicating good discrimination of the model. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that the model had a good fit (χ 2=12.559, P=0.128). Calibration curve and decision curve analyses suggested that the model has high predictive efficacy and clinical application value.

Conclusions: Duration of bed rest, shock, gastrointestinal decompression, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and combined parenteral nutrition are independent risk factors for FI in critically ill children receiving EN. The nomogram model developed based on these factors exhibits high predictive efficacy and clinical application value.