Assessing the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate interventions using a multi-layered temporal network

IF 8.8 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine
Yunyi Cai , Weiyi Wang , Lanlan Yu , Ruixiao Wang , Gui-Quan Sun , Allisandra G. Kummer , Paulo C. Ventura , Jiancheng Lv , Marco Ajelli , Quan-Hui Liu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, public health strategies tend to gravitate towards non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) given the time required to develop targeted treatments and vaccines. One of the most common NPIs is Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI). One of the factors determining the effectiveness of TTI is the ability to identify contacts of infected individuals. In this study, we propose a multi-layer temporal contact network to model transmission dynamics and assess the impact of different TTI implementations, using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study. The model was used to evaluate TTI effectiveness both in containing an outbreak and mitigating the impact of an epidemic. We estimated that a TTI strategy based on home isolation and testing of both primary and secondary contacts can contain outbreaks only when the reproduction number is up to 1.3, at which the epidemic prevention potential is 88.2% (95% CI: 87.9%–88.5%). On the other hand, for higher value of the reproduction number, TTI is estimated to noticeably mitigate disease burden but at high social costs (e.g., over a month in isolation/quarantine per person for reproduction numbers of 1.7 or higher). We estimated that strategies considering quarantine of contacts have a larger epidemic prevention potential than strategies that either avoid tracing contacts or require contacts to be tested before isolation. Combining TTI with other social distancing measures can improve the likelihood of successfully containing an outbreak but the estimated epidemic prevention potential remains lower than 50% for reproduction numbers higher than 2.1. In conclusion, our model-based evaluation highlights the challenges of relying on TTIs to contain an outbreak of a novel pathogen with characteristics similar to SARS-CoV-2, and that the estimated effectiveness of TTI depends on the way contact patterns are modeled, supporting the relevance of obtaining comprehensive data on human social interactions to improve preparedness.
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来源期刊
Infectious Disease Modelling
Infectious Disease Modelling Mathematics-Applied Mathematics
CiteScore
17.00
自引率
3.40%
发文量
73
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍: Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.
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