Global, regional, and national burdens of hip fractures in elderly individuals from 1990 to 2021 and predictions up to 2050: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

IF 3.5 3区医学 Q2 GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY

Archives of gerontology and geriatrics Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI:10.1016/j.archger.2025.105832

Chuwei Tian , Liu Shi , Jinyu Wang , Jun Zhou , Chen Rui , Yueheng Yin , Wei Du , Shimin Chang , Yunfeng Rui

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Abstract

Purpose

We aimed to analyse the global, regional, and national burdens of hip fractures in older adults from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050, on the basis of data from the GBD 2021 study.

Methods

We employed a joinpoint model to analyse trends in the burden of hip fractures from 1990‒2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify temporal trends over this period. We evaluated the relationship between the social development index and the burden of hip fracture in elderly people and conducted a health inequality analysis. Additionally, we applied Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast burden trends of hip fractures up to 2050.

Results

The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for hip fractures in older adults rose from 781.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 948.81 in 2021. The 2021 age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) was 1,894.07, and the age-standardized YLD rate (ASDR) was 173.52. From 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence increased by 168.71 % and 173.07 %, respectively, while the burden of DALYs decreased. Future trends were projected via the LSTM. The burden and risk factors for hip fractures varied significantly by sex, country, and region. Population and aging are primary contributors to the rising incidence of elderly hip fractures, with falls being the leading direct cause.

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of hip fractures in the elderly population, especially among older women, steadily increased. Population ageing highlights the urgent need for targeted public health interventions and resource allocation, including early diagnosis, effective prevention strategies, and region-specific management approaches.

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来源期刊

Archives of gerontology and geriatrics 医学-老年医学

CiteScore

7.30

自引率

5.00%

发文量

198

审稿时长

16 days

期刊介绍： Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics provides a medium for the publication of papers from the fields of experimental gerontology and clinical and social geriatrics. The principal aim of the journal is to facilitate the exchange of information between specialists in these three fields of gerontological research. Experimental papers dealing with the basic mechanisms of aging at molecular, cellular, tissue or organ levels will be published. Clinical papers will be accepted if they provide sufficiently new information or are of fundamental importance for the knowledge of human aging. Purely descriptive clinical papers will be accepted only if the results permit further interpretation. Papers dealing with anti-aging pharmacological preparations in humans are welcome. Papers on the social aspects of geriatrics will be accepted if they are of general interest regarding the epidemiology of aging and the efficiency and working methods of the social organizations for the health care of the elderly.