Uncertainty assessment of solute concentration in natural aquifers sampled from observation wells

IF 4 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Advances in Water Resources Pub Date : 2025-03-16 DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.104949

Felipe P.J. de Barros , Jinwoo Im

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Abstract

The subsurface environment’s complex heterogeneous structure poses challenges for accurately modeling transport phenomena due to limited data and measurement errors, leading to uncertainties in solute transport predictions. This study proposes a computational framework to semi-analytically compute the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of solute concentration in heterogeneous aquifers. We investigate how hydrogeological heterogeneity and sampling volume affect concentration uncertainty, as measurements are typically taken at observation wells defined by their sampling volume. Our framework estimates the CDF for a conservative solute, considering hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity, local-scale dispersion, and sampling dimensions. The CDF solution is applicable to point-source injections and scenarios with low to moderate heterogeneity. The CDF solution is verified against high-resolution numerical simulations in a 3D heterogeneous aquifer setting. Results show that sampling volume significantly impacts the concentration CDF tails, crucial for evaluating extreme event probabilities, with sensitivity to sampling volume decreasing as travel distance increases.

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观测井取样的天然含水层溶质浓度不确定度评定

由于有限的数据和测量误差，地下环境复杂的非均质结构给准确模拟运移现象带来了挑战，导致溶质运移预测存在不确定性。本文提出了一个半解析计算非均质含水层溶质浓度累积分布函数（CDF）的计算框架。我们研究水文地质非均质性和采样体积如何影响浓度不确定度，因为测量通常是在由其采样体积定义的观测井中进行的。我们的框架估计了保守溶质的CDF，考虑了水力传导性的非均质性、局部尺度的分散和采样尺寸。CDF溶液适用于点源注入和低到中等非均质性的场景。CDF解决方案在三维非均质含水层环境中进行了高分辨率数值模拟验证。结果表明，采样体积对CDF尾浓度的影响显著，随旅行距离的增加，采样体积对CDF尾浓度的敏感性降低。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Advances in Water Resources 环境科学-水资源

CiteScore

9.40

自引率

6.40%

发文量

171

审稿时长

36 days

期刊介绍： Advances in Water Resources provides a forum for the presentation of fundamental scientific advances in the understanding of water resources systems. The scope of Advances in Water Resources includes any combination of theoretical, computational, and experimental approaches used to advance fundamental understanding of surface or subsurface water resources systems or the interaction of these systems with the atmosphere, geosphere, biosphere, and human societies. Manuscripts involving case studies that do not attempt to reach broader conclusions, research on engineering design, applied hydraulics, or water quality and treatment, as well as applications of existing knowledge that do not advance fundamental understanding of hydrological processes, are not appropriate for Advances in Water Resources. Examples of appropriate topical areas that will be considered include the following: • Surface and subsurface hydrology • Hydrometeorology • Environmental fluid dynamics • Ecohydrology and ecohydrodynamics • Multiphase transport phenomena in porous media • Fluid flow and species transport and reaction processes