Evolutionary Characteristics Extraction and Catastrophic Years Prediction of Agricultural Drought Disaster in HENAN Province, China

IF 1.9 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI:10.1007/s00024-024-03622-w

Dongxing Zhang, Dang Luo

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Abstract

This paper utilizes the data on crop drought affected area rate and crop drought disaster area rate in Henan Province from 1978 to 2020 to explore the evolution patterns of agricultural drought disasters in the region. The Mann–Kendall test was employed to identify the trend and mutation characteristics of the disaster situation, while the Morlet wavelet method was applied to analyze its periodicity. A grey dynamic multivariable catastrophe prediction model was proposed to forecast the potential years for future agricultural drought disasters in Henan Province. The results indicate: (1) Over the past 42 years, both the crop drought affected area rate and crop drought disaster area rate in Henan Province have exhibited a significant downward trend. (2) No mutation was observed in the crop drought affected area rate during the study period, whereas a mutation in the rate of crop drought disaster area occurred in 2008. (3) Both the crop drought affected area rate and crop drought disaster area rate displayed multi-timescale periodic changes. (4) The potential years for agricultural drought disasters in the next decade are predicted to be 2024 and 2029, respectively. The findings of this study offer a scientific foundation for the development of medium to long-term management strategies for agricultural drought disaster mitigation in Henan Province.

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来源期刊

pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

240

审稿时长

9.8 months

期刊介绍： pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.