Statistical and probabilistic modeling of groundwater contamination: A data-driven uncertainty and risk assessment in Barind Tract, Rajshahi, Bangladesh

Journal of trace elements and minerals Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI:10.1016/j.jtemin.2025.100223

Mir Md Tasnim Alam , Md Opu Sarker , Mahfuzur Rahman , Nazmus Sakib , Mahir Tajwar , Md Yousuf Gazi , Shamiha Shafinaz Shreya , Saika Islam Meim , Anwar Zahid

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Abstract

Introduction

Groundwater contamination by potentially toxic elements (PTEs) poses serious health risks in Bangladesh, yet limited studies have addressed their seasonal and spatial variability. In the Barind Tract, Rajshahi, groundwater is a critical resource for drinking and irrigation, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive evaluation of contamination patterns and health implications.

Methods

A total of 244 groundwater samples (122 per season) were analyzed for As, Al, Cu, Mn, Cr, and B using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry and VIS Spectrophotometry. Contamination was assessed using Metal Evaluation Index (MEI), Nemerow Pollution Index (NPI), Contamination Degree (CD), and Poseidon Index (PoS). Statistical analyses included ANOVA, effect size (η², f²), PCA, and HCA. Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations, 95% CI) estimated probabilistic health risks for adults and children.

Results

Boron (1.034 mg L⁻¹) and manganese (0.824 mg L⁻¹) dominated during the wet season, while manganese (0.735 mg L⁻¹) and aluminum (0.605 mg L⁻¹) were highest in the dry season. MEI, NPI, and CD indices indicated significant contamination in Sirajganj, Chapai Nawabganj, and Natore, with Chapai Nawabganj (PoS 9.01) and Natore (PoS 8.223) showing extensive groundwater degradation. Statistical analyses confirmed significant seasonal variations, with aluminum, copper, chromium, and boron showing the most fluctuation due to hydrological and geochemical changes. Health risk assessments identified 64 samples unsafe for children and 32 for adults, with Monte Carlo simulations indicating hazard indices reaching up to 4.68 for children in certain hotspots.

Conclusions

Pronounced seasonal variations in groundwater contamination underscore the necessity of targeted, season-specific monitoring and mitigation measures. Tailored interventions are essential to safeguard public health, especially for children who face higher exposure risks. The findings offer critical insights for policy-makers and stakeholders, promoting sustainable groundwater management in the Barind Tract.

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引言潜在有毒元素 (PTE) 对孟加拉国地下水污染造成了严重的健康风险，但针对其季节和空间变化的研究却很有限。采用原子吸收分光光度法和可见分光光度法分析了 244 个地下水样本（每个季节 122 个）中的砷、铝、铜、锰、铬和硼。使用金属评价指数 (MEI)、尼莫洛污染指数 (NPI)、污染度 (CD) 和波塞冬指数 (PoS) 评估污染情况。统计分析包括方差分析、效应大小（η²、f²）、PCA 和 HCA。结果硼（1.034 毫克/升-¹）和锰（0.824 毫克/升-¹）在雨季居多，而锰（0.735 毫克/升-¹）和铝（0.605 毫克/升-¹）在旱季最高。MEI、NPI 和 CD 指数表明，Sirajganj、Chapai Nawabganj 和 Natore 的污染严重，其中 Chapai Nawabganj（PoS 9.01）和 Natore（PoS 8.223）的地下水严重退化。统计分析证实，由于水文和地球化学的变化，铝、铜、铬和硼的季节性变化较大。健康风险评估发现，64 个样本对儿童不安全，32 个样本对成人不安全，蒙特卡罗模拟显示，在某些热点地区，儿童的危害指数高达 4.68。有针对性的干预措施对保障公众健康至关重要，尤其是对面临较高暴露风险的儿童而言。研究结果为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了重要启示，促进了巴林德地区地下水的可持续管理。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of trace elements and minerals Medicine and Dentistry (General), Analytical Chemistry, Environmental Science (General), Toxicology, Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (General), Nutrition, Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine (General)

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审稿时长

65 days