Detecting Subtle Change in Species and Trait Composition and Quantifying Its Uncertainty in a Boreal Peatland

IF 2.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Journal of Vegetation Science Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI:10.1111/jvs.70025

Aino Korrensalo, Juho Kettunen, Lauri Mehtätalo, Jarno Vanhatalo, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aims

Climate change-induced changes in vegetation may be at first subtle and occur only locally within the ecosystem, complicating their reliable detection. We aimed to quantify short-term changes in species and trait composition in a moss-dominated ecosystem and to examine the associated uncertainty at the local and study area scales.

Location

Pristine boreal fen (Siikaneva) in Central Finland.

Methods

We applied the recently developed pre-emptive joint species distribution model (pJSDM) to quantify the change in plant species and functional trait composition over 12 years. pJSDM allows spatially continuous prediction of change and the associated uncertainty from pointwise observations to the whole ecosystem. It includes the pre-emptive competition for space within mosses that are an important component in many high-latitude ecosystems. To address the mechanisms shaping the plant community, pJSDM was extended to predict the change in trait distribution parameters.

Results

Within the studied peatland, we detected changes in species and trait composition that were small in magnitude but occurred with high probability. Some of the changes occurred only locally, others over the whole study area, and some of the local changes occurred in opposing directions. The species originally found in the drier locations increased in abundance. Also, an increase in Sphagnum capitulum size was detected, indicating adaptation to drier conditions. The cover of wet-adapted species decreased at the study area scale but displayed local increases.

Conclusions

The studied peatland showed nonuniform change in species and trait composition. The observed short-term changes are in line with earlier descriptions of multidecadal drying and ombrotrophication of peatland vegetation and suggest increasing contrasts within the vegetation. The applied approach, pJSDM paired with trait distribution parameters, showed potential in revealing ongoing subtle changes in moss-dominated vegetation.

Abstract Image

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检测北方泥炭地物种和性状组成的微妙变化并量化其不确定性

气候变化引起的植被变化最初可能是微妙的，并且只发生在生态系统的局部区域，这使它们的可靠检测变得复杂。我们的目标是量化苔藓为主的生态系统中物种和性状组成的短期变化，并在局部和研究区域尺度上检查相关的不确定性。地理位置芬兰中部原始的北方沼泽（Siikaneva）方法采用新建立的先发制人联合物种分布模型（pre-emptive joint species distribution model, pJSDM），量化12年来植物种类和功能性状组成的变化。pJSDM允许从逐点观测到整个生态系统的变化和相关不确定性的空间连续预测。它包括对苔藓中空间的先发制人的竞争，而苔藓是许多高纬度生态系统的重要组成部分。为了研究植物群落的形成机制，将pJSDM扩展到性状分布参数的预测中。结果在研究的泥炭地中，我们发现物种和性状组成的变化幅度很小，但发生的概率很大。有些变化只发生在局部，有些变化发生在整个研究区域，有些局部变化发生在相反的方向。原本在干旱地区发现的物种数量增加了。此外，小头藻的大小也有所增加，表明其对干旱环境的适应。在研究区尺度上，湿适应物种的覆盖度呈下降趋势，但局部呈上升趋势。结论泥炭地的物种组成和性状组成变化不均匀。观测到的短期变化与先前关于泥炭地植被多年代际干燥和营养化的描述一致，并表明植被内部的差异越来越大。应用pJSDM与性状分布参数配对的方法，显示了揭示苔藓优势植被持续细微变化的潜力。

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来源期刊

Journal of Vegetation Science 环境科学-林学

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

3.60%

发文量

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Vegetation Science publishes papers on all aspects of plant community ecology, with particular emphasis on papers that develop new concepts or methods, test theory, identify general patterns, or that are otherwise likely to interest a broad international readership. Papers may focus on any aspect of vegetation science, e.g. community structure (including community assembly and plant functional types), biodiversity (including species richness and composition), spatial patterns (including plant geography and landscape ecology), temporal changes (including demography, community dynamics and palaeoecology) and processes (including ecophysiology), provided the focus is on increasing our understanding of plant communities. The Journal publishes papers on the ecology of a single species only if it plays a key role in structuring plant communities. Papers that apply ecological concepts, theories and methods to the vegetation management, conservation and restoration, and papers on vegetation survey should be directed to our associate journal, Applied Vegetation Science journal.