The impact of local cigar pack regulations on cigar retail sales

Abstract

Objective

Municipalities across the United States have enacted minimum cigar pack size and price policies to curb the sales of inexpensive, small cigars. However, there is limited research evaluating the effectiveness of these policies.

Methods

This study used Nielsen sales data from 2011 to 2020, aggregated by market region and half-year. A difference-in-differences approach was used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated, which is cigar dollar sales compared to what they would have been without such a policy. Analyses included overall sales, as well as sales of flavored and unflavored cigar sales.

Results

The analyses revealed a significant decrease in cigar sales associated with the policies. The overall average treatment effect on the treated (ATET), indicated a reduction in sales compared to what their sales would have been without the policies (ATET = −$204,287.7, p < .001). Specifically, the New York market experienced a substantial decline in sales (ATET = −$247,621.8, p < .001), as did the Boston/Manchester market (ATET = −$123,810.2, p < .001). These reductions were consistent for both flavored and unflavored cigars.

Conclusion

Local minimum cigar pack policies were associated with reduced cigar sales overall and across cigar flavor types. The study highlights the importance of regulations that address the price and packaging of cigars. The findings contribute to the growing body of evidence supporting the impact of local cigar policies on reducing cigar use and suggest their potential for successful adoption in other localities, which could improve public health outcomes.