Influence of Black Carbon on Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Potential Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

With the ongoing growth in global demand for renewable energy, photovoltaic and wind energy play crucial roles in reducing carbon emissions and mitigating climate change. Meteorological factors such as surface solar radiation, temperature, and wind influence the photovoltaic potential (PV_POT) and wind energy potential (WEP). Black carbon aerosols (BC), with their strong capacity to absorb shortwave radiation, induce regional climate changes, underscore the non-negligible impact on PV_POT and WEP. This study utilizes the Community Earth System Model to project changes in PV_POT and WEP under shared socioeconomic pathways and their responses to BC. Results indicate that the model accurately delineated the spatial distribution and historical trends of five meteorological elements: wind speed, air temperature, surface solar radiation, surface pressure and surface specific humidity. In the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, both PV_POT and WEP exhibited remarkable regional and seasonal variations. In Western Europe, Canada, Tibetan Plateau, and most parts of eastern China, PV_POT is projected increase, while the induced BC enhances the increase in PV_POT on the Tibetan Plateau. Effects of BC on the annual trends of PV_POT vary across regions. Furthermore, the global average of both PV_POT and WEP is expected to increase, with BC strengthening the increase of PV_POT, but scenario differences exist in WEP. In the SSP245 scenario, BC will induce a global average PV_POT increase of 0.41 × 10⁻³ W/m² by 2100.