Social-economic determinant of air travel demands in Africa

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.001

Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle , Kaosarat Abolanle Quadri , Robin Maialeh

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Air travel plays a critical role in fostering economic growth, regional integration, and connectivity, yet its demand dynamics in Africa remain underexplored. This study investigates the elasticity of air travel demand in Africa, focusing on the influence of socioeconomic factors and exploring non-linear dynamics. Our findings reveal that income and wealth are robust determinants of air travel demand, with higher levels of both leading to increased demand across all models. Education and exchange rates also positively impact air travel, while inflation exerts a negative influence. Notably, country size and infrastructural development emerge as significant factors, reinforcing the importance of geographic scale and infrastructure in shaping air travel patterns. Additionally, our analysis uncovers non-linear dynamics, particularly the diminishing returns of rising income and fuel prices on air travel demand. The results highlight a complex relationship where initial increases in income and fuel prices boost demand, but this effect wanes as these factors continue to grow. The interaction effects show that tourism amplifies income's impact on air travel, while high greenhouse gas emissions and aviation fuel prices, coupled with exchange rate volatility, hinder infrastructural benefits, reducing demand. These insights suggest that policymakers should consider these dynamics and prioritise sustainable infrastructural development and targeted economic policies to foster growth in the African air travel sector.

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非洲航空旅行需求的社会经济决定因素

航空旅行在促进经济增长、区域一体化和互联互通方面发挥着至关重要的作用，但非洲对航空旅行需求动态的探索仍然不足。本研究调查了非洲航空旅行需求的弹性，重点关注社会经济因素的影响并探索非线性动态。我们的研究结果表明，收入和财富是航空旅行需求的有力决定因素，在所有模型中，收入和财富水平越高，需求就越大。教育和汇率也会对航空旅行产生积极影响，而通货膨胀则会产生消极影响。值得注意的是，国家规模和基础设施发展是重要因素，这加强了地理规模和基础设施在塑造航空旅行模式方面的重要性。此外，我们的分析还发现了非线性动态变化，特别是收入和燃料价格上涨对航空旅行需求的回报递减。分析结果凸显了一种复杂的关系，即收入和燃料价格的最初增长会促进需求，但随着这些因素的持续增长，这种效应会逐渐减弱。交互效应表明，旅游业扩大了收入对航空旅行的影响，而温室气体排放和航空燃料价格的高涨，再加上汇率波动，阻碍了基础设施的效益，从而降低了需求。这些见解表明，决策者应考虑这些动态因素，优先考虑可持续的基础设施发展和有针对性的经济政策，以促进非洲航空旅游部门的增长。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.