Climate change effects on the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region

IF 6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Urban Climate Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102382

Majid Mirzaei , Adel Shirmohammadi , Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas , Lars J. Olson , Masoud Negahban-Azar

{"title":"Climate change effects on the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region","authors":"Majid Mirzaei , Adel Shirmohammadi , Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas , Lars J. Olson , Masoud Negahban-Azar","doi":"10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102382","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global environmental stability is significantly impacted by climate change, with an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events posing substantial risks to infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of extreme precipitation events in Maryland is provided, utilizing the latest CMIP6 models to assess historical (1951–2022) trends and project future scenarios from 2022 to 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Extreme precipitation events were analyzed by fitting a Generalized Logistic (GLO) distribution to daily observational precipitation data, with events above the 95th percentile identified as extreme. The frequency and magnitude of these events were determined by counting annual occurrences, calculating mean magnitudes, and assessing their probability across different climate scenarios. Additionally, Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves were developed to estimate expected precipitation amounts for various durations and return periods, with a focus on the associated uncertainties. The findings indicate that the probability of extreme precipitation events has slightly increased over the past seven decades, with notable variability between years, while the magnitude of these events has remained relatively stable. Future projections suggest a considerable rise in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, particularly under the SSP585 scenario, with the most severe impacts expected in certain regions of Maryland (Anne Arundel County and Dorchester County) and on the global level. This highlights the varying degrees of vulnerability across the state and underscores the need for targeted adaptation strategies. These results emphasize the critical importance of emissions mitigation to limit the severity of future extreme weather events and suggest that robust, region-specific adaptation measures will be essential in managing the increasing risks associated with climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48626,"journal":{"name":"Urban Climate","volume":"61 ","pages":"Article 102382"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Urban Climate","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095525000987","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Global environmental stability is significantly impacted by climate change, with an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events posing substantial risks to infrastructure, ecosystems, and communities. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of extreme precipitation events in Maryland is provided, utilizing the latest CMIP6 models to assess historical (1951–2022) trends and project future scenarios from 2022 to 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). Extreme precipitation events were analyzed by fitting a Generalized Logistic (GLO) distribution to daily observational precipitation data, with events above the 95th percentile identified as extreme. The frequency and magnitude of these events were determined by counting annual occurrences, calculating mean magnitudes, and assessing their probability across different climate scenarios. Additionally, Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves were developed to estimate expected precipitation amounts for various durations and return periods, with a focus on the associated uncertainties. The findings indicate that the probability of extreme precipitation events has slightly increased over the past seven decades, with notable variability between years, while the magnitude of these events has remained relatively stable. Future projections suggest a considerable rise in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, particularly under the SSP585 scenario, with the most severe impacts expected in certain regions of Maryland (Anne Arundel County and Dorchester County) and on the global level. This highlights the varying degrees of vulnerability across the state and underscores the need for targeted adaptation strategies. These results emphasize the critical importance of emissions mitigation to limit the severity of future extreme weather events and suggest that robust, region-specific adaptation measures will be essential in managing the increasing risks associated with climate change.

查看原文本刊更多论文

气候变化对中大西洋地区极端降水时空分布的影响

全球环境稳定受到气候变化的显著影响，极端天气事件的频率和强度不断增加，对基础设施、生态系统和社区构成了重大风险。本文利用最新的CMIP6模式对马里兰州极端降水事件进行了综合分析，评估了历史（1951-2022）趋势，并预测了三种共享社会经济路径（SSP126、SSP245和SSP585）下2022 - 2100年的未来情景。极端降水事件通过对日观测降水资料的广义Logistic （GLO）分布进行拟合分析，将超过95百分位的事件确定为极端事件。这些事件的频率和强度是通过计算年发生次数、计算平均强度和评估它们在不同气候情景下的概率来确定的。此外，还建立了深度-持续时间-频率（DDF）曲线来估计不同持续时间和回归期的预期降水量，重点关注相关的不确定性。研究结果表明，极端降水事件发生的概率在过去70年略有增加，且年份之间存在显著的变化，而极端降水事件的强度保持相对稳定。未来的预测表明，极端事件的频率和强度都将大幅上升，特别是在SSP585情景下，预计最严重的影响将发生在马里兰州的某些地区（安妮阿伦德尔县和多切斯特县）以及全球层面。这突出了全州不同程度的脆弱性，并强调了有针对性的适应战略的必要性。这些结果强调了减缓排放对于限制未来极端天气事件的严重程度至关重要，并表明在管理与气候变化相关的日益增加的风险方面，强有力的、针对特定区域的适应措施至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Urban Climate Social Sciences-Urban Studies

CiteScore

9.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

286

期刊介绍： Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following: Urban meteorology and climate[...] Urban environmental pollution[...] Adaptation to global change[...] Urban economic and social issues[...] Research Approaches[...]