Potential impact of vehicle electrification on greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants in 2035: A scenario-based well-to-wheel analysis for New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston using GREET-MOVES integration

Abstract

This study uses an innovative approach by integrating the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model with MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) to evaluate the well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions of key pollutants—carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO_X), particulate matter (PM_2.5, PM₁₀), sulfur oxides (SO_X), and greenhouse gases (GHG-100, GHG-20)—across four major United States (U.S.) cities: New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston, under various electrification scenarios projected for 2035. Using two distinct electricity generation mixes from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the analysis explores the impact of three electrification scenarios: moderate (MedE), high (HighE), and full electrification (FullE). Results indicate that CO emissions decrease by an average of 15.8% in MedE, 26.5% in HighE, and 99.1% in the FullE scenario across all cities. On average, NO_X emissions decline by 5% in MedE, 8.5% in HighE and 97.3% in FullE. GHG-100 and GHG-20 emissions decrease by 9% in MedE, 15.6% in HighE, and 91% in FullE. Reductions in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ are more modest even with full electrification due to the contribution of non-exhaust emissions. However, SO_X emissions, which originate primarily from electricity generation, exhibit substantial variability. For example, while New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago see an average reduction of 79.2% under EIA's FullE scenario, Houston experiences a 75.1% increase. In contrast, NREL projections show reductions across all cities. These results reaffirm that the benefits of electrification depend on the grid's carbon intensity.