Global burden of gallbladder cancer in 2022 and predictions to 2042

IF 3.8 3区医学 Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

Digestive and Liver Disease Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.dld.2025.02.007

Hanfeng Guo , Decai Zhang , Zhaoqi Li , Shaojun Liu , Rui Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background & Aims

This study aims to provide updated estimate on the global burden of Gallbladder cancer (GBC) in 2022 and to predict the trends through the year 2042.

Methods

Data were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2022 database. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI). Trends up to the year 2042 were predicted based on global demographic projections by HDI.

Results

Worldwide, there were 122,469 new GBC cases and 89,045 deaths identified in 2022. While the highest absolute number was observed in South Central Asia and Eastern Asia, particularly India and China, countries in South America, particularly Bolivia, showed the highest age-standardised rate. Medium HDI countries showed more than double the incidence and mortality rates compared to low HDI countries. Over half of GBC cases and deaths occurred in individuals aged 50–74 years. Predictions indicate a 65.3 % increase in new cases and a 67.6 % increase in deaths by 2042, with High HDI countries and Low HDI countries experiencing the largest absolute and percentage increases, respectively.

Conclusions

The global burden of GBC is substantial, especially concentrated in South Central Asia, Eastern Asia and South America. With significant increase of burden over the next 20 years, there is an urgent need for effective cancer control strategies in regions exhibiting great GBC burden.

查看原文本刊更多论文

2022年全球胆囊癌负担及到2042年的预测。

背景与目的：本研究旨在提供2022年全球胆囊癌（GBC）负担的最新估计，并预测到2042年的趋势。方法：数据提取自GLOBOCAN 2022数据库。发病率和死亡率按性别、国家、世界区域和人类发展指数（HDI）计算。到2042年的趋势是根据人类发展指数的全球人口预测来预测的。结果：在全球范围内，2022年有122,469例新的GBC病例和89,045例死亡。南亚、中亚和东亚，特别是印度和中国的绝对数字最高，而南美洲国家，特别是玻利维亚的年龄标准化比率最高。中等人类发展指数国家的发病率和死亡率是低人类发展指数国家的两倍多。半数以上的GBC病例和死亡发生在50-74岁的人群中。预测表明，到2042年，新发病例将增加65.3%，死亡人数将增加67.6%，高人类发展指数国家和低人类发展指数国家分别出现最大的绝对增长和百分比增长。结论：GBC的全球负担很大，尤其集中在中南亚、东亚和南美洲。随着未来20年负担的显著增加，迫切需要在GBC负担大的地区制定有效的癌症控制策略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Digestive and Liver Disease 医学-胃肠肝病学

CiteScore

6.10

自引率

2.20%

发文量

632

审稿时长

19 days

期刊介绍： Digestive and Liver Disease is an international journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology. It is the official journal of Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF); Italian Association for the Study of the Pancreas (AISP); Italian Association for Digestive Endoscopy (SIED); Italian Association for Hospital Gastroenterologists and Digestive Endoscopists (AIGO); Italian Society of Gastroenterology (SIGE); Italian Society of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Hepatology (SIGENP) and Italian Group for the Study of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IG-IBD). Digestive and Liver Disease publishes papers on basic and clinical research in the field of gastroenterology and hepatology. Contributions consist of: Original Papers Correspondence to the Editor Editorials, Reviews and Special Articles Progress Reports Image of the Month Congress Proceedings Symposia and Mini-symposia.