Characterization of the Long-distance Dispersal Kernel of White-Tailed Deer and Evaluating its Impact on Chronic Wasting Disease Spread in Wisconsin.

IF 2 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY
Mennatallah Gouda, Jim Powell, W Jacob McClure, Daniel P Walsh, Daniel Storm
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease infecting cervids. It is highly contagious and caused by misfolded prions that propagate via templated conformational conversion of the cervid's normal prion protein. Prevalence of CWD in free-ranging deer in North America is mostly low, but in some regions local prevalence has reached 80%. CWD prions can be transmitted via direct contact with infected individuals or indirectly through the environment. Infected individuals shed prions through feces, urine, saliva or carcasses, and prions have long environmental persistence. Long-distance dispersal of infected deer poses a significant risk for CWD spread. We propose an integrodifference equation (IDE) model to capture CWD dynamics and the consequences of long-distance dispersal behavior in white-tailed deer (WTD, Odocoileus virginianus). A diffusion-settling model characterizes long-distance dispersal kernels, accommodating hypothetical dispersal behaviors through time-dependent settling rate functions. Three new closed-form dispersal kernels are approximated using Laplace's method and parameterized with GPS location data collected from WTD in Wisconsin, USA. Settling rates reflecting ongoing sensitivity to stimuli which prompt deer to disperse from their natal home range give the most supported long-distance dispersal kernel. Impact of long-distance dispersal on CWD spread is quantified using the IDE model. At high population densities, long-distance dispersal can magnify CWD spread by a factor of four. At lower population densities single infected individuals cannot initiate an outbreak, but CWD may still spread due to the accumulation of environmental hazard from prions behind the wave of invasion, possibly presenting substantial management challenges.

白尾鹿长距离传播内核的特征及其对威斯康星州慢性消耗性疾病传播的影响评估。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
8.60%
发文量
123
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, the official journal of the Society for Mathematical Biology, disseminates original research findings and other information relevant to the interface of biology and the mathematical sciences. Contributions should have relevance to both fields. In order to accommodate the broad scope of new developments, the journal accepts a variety of contributions, including: Original research articles focused on new biological insights gained with the help of tools from the mathematical sciences or new mathematical tools and methods with demonstrated applicability to biological investigations Research in mathematical biology education Reviews Commentaries Perspectives, and contributions that discuss issues important to the profession All contributions are peer-reviewed.
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