Characterization of the Long-distance Dispersal Kernel of White-Tailed Deer and Evaluating its Impact on Chronic Wasting Disease Spread in Wisconsin.

IF 2 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY
Mennatallah Gouda, Jim Powell, W Jacob McClure, Daniel P Walsh, Daniel Storm
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease infecting cervids. It is highly contagious and caused by misfolded prions that propagate via templated conformational conversion of the cervid's normal prion protein. Prevalence of CWD in free-ranging deer in North America is mostly low, but in some regions local prevalence has reached 80%. CWD prions can be transmitted via direct contact with infected individuals or indirectly through the environment. Infected individuals shed prions through feces, urine, saliva or carcasses, and prions have long environmental persistence. Long-distance dispersal of infected deer poses a significant risk for CWD spread. We propose an integrodifference equation (IDE) model to capture CWD dynamics and the consequences of long-distance dispersal behavior in white-tailed deer (WTD, Odocoileus virginianus). A diffusion-settling model characterizes long-distance dispersal kernels, accommodating hypothetical dispersal behaviors through time-dependent settling rate functions. Three new closed-form dispersal kernels are approximated using Laplace's method and parameterized with GPS location data collected from WTD in Wisconsin, USA. Settling rates reflecting ongoing sensitivity to stimuli which prompt deer to disperse from their natal home range give the most supported long-distance dispersal kernel. Impact of long-distance dispersal on CWD spread is quantified using the IDE model. At high population densities, long-distance dispersal can magnify CWD spread by a factor of four. At lower population densities single infected individuals cannot initiate an outbreak, but CWD may still spread due to the accumulation of environmental hazard from prions behind the wave of invasion, possibly presenting substantial management challenges.

白尾鹿长距离传播内核的特征及其对威斯康星州慢性消耗性疾病传播的影响评估。
慢性消耗性疾病(CWD)是一种致命的神经退行性疾病。它是高度传染性的,由错误折叠的朊病毒引起,这些朊病毒通过宫颈正常朊病毒蛋白的模板构象转换进行传播。在北美自由放养的鹿中,CWD的患病率大多较低,但在一些地区,当地患病率已达到80%。CWD朊病毒可通过与受感染个体的直接接触或通过环境间接传播。受感染的个体通过粪便、尿液、唾液或尸体排出朊病毒,并且朊病毒具有长期的环境持久性。受感染鹿的远距离传播构成了CWD传播的重大风险。我们提出了一个积分差分方程(IDE)模型来描述白尾鹿(Odocoileus virginianus)长距离扩散行为的动态和后果。扩散沉降模型描述了长距离扩散核,通过随时间变化的沉降速率函数来适应假设的扩散行为。利用美国威斯康辛州WTD地区的GPS定位数据,利用拉普拉斯方法对3个新的封闭型分散核进行了近似,并进行了参数化处理。沉降率反映了对刺激的持续敏感性,这些刺激促使鹿从其出生的家园范围分散,这是最受支持的长距离分散核心。利用IDE模型量化了长距离扩散对CWD扩散的影响。在高种群密度的情况下,远距离传播可以将CWD的传播放大四倍。在人口密度较低的情况下,单个感染者不能引发疫情,但由于病毒入侵浪潮背后的环境危害积累,CWD仍可能传播,可能带来重大的管理挑战。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
8.60%
发文量
123
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, the official journal of the Society for Mathematical Biology, disseminates original research findings and other information relevant to the interface of biology and the mathematical sciences. Contributions should have relevance to both fields. In order to accommodate the broad scope of new developments, the journal accepts a variety of contributions, including: Original research articles focused on new biological insights gained with the help of tools from the mathematical sciences or new mathematical tools and methods with demonstrated applicability to biological investigations Research in mathematical biology education Reviews Commentaries Perspectives, and contributions that discuss issues important to the profession All contributions are peer-reviewed.
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