Negotiating the Impossible? A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East

Abstract

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have drawn attention to the role that nuclear weapons can play during periods of conflict and how regional crises can bar preventive diplomacy. Work toward establishing a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East has been made all the more urgent by the post-October 7 conflicts, international concerns about Iranian nuclear proliferation, and the potential for domestic Saudi uranium enrichment, which could risk proliferation. This article proposes building such a zone through a gradualist and inclusive process that includes four key components: an American security guarantee for Israel in return for its eventual transition away from nuclear arms; a new US-led nuclear deal with Iran as a platform for further diplomacy; Washington's upholding the nonproliferation “gold standard” as a pillar of regional policy; and the removal of US nuclear weapons from Turkey. Much hinges on initiating a series of significant steps as part of a more targeted, consistent, and strategic Mideast policy in Washington.