Club convergence in state fragility: Global insights

Abstract

This letter presents the first study on the convergence of state fragility, measured by the Fragile States Index. Applying the club convergence and clustering test of Phillips and Sul (2007), we find no evidence of overall convergence but identify nine distinct groups of countries following separate long-term trajectories. The existence of multiple convergence clubs underscores the substantial disparities in state fragility among countries. Furthermore, the distribution of countries within these convergence clubs is highly asymmetric, with many countries in less stable groups, suggesting a potential stability trap.