Data-driven assessment of climate change and vegetative cover dynamics in traditional oases

IF 4.7 2区 地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES
Elisa Baioni, Giulia Fiantanese, Giovanni Michele Porta
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region:

Abiod Valley, Aurès region, Algeria.

Study focus:

This work focuses on the relation between climatic forcing and vegetation cover dynamics in traditional oases. This study pursues two main objectives: (1) estimate the vegetative surface cover of traditional oases from satellite images, (2) quantify the impact of climatic variables on vegetation dynamics and assess future scenarios. We propose a methodology that leverages satellite imagery and derived indices (NDVI, NDMI) to quantify vegetation cover and water stress events at the oasis spatial scale. We then assess the feedback between climate and vegetation cover at monthly and yearly scale through multivariate analyses based on vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models.

New hydrological insights for the region:

Our findings reveal an appreciable decrease in vegetation cover over the last decade across three considered traditional oases in the study region. The monthly scale analysis suggests a lagged effect of climatic variables, especially cumulative precipitation, on vegetation water stress. The long term VEC prediction of climatic variables aligns with GDDP-CMIP6 climate projections, forecasting an increase in average temperature and potential evapo-transpiration. A significant decline in vegetative surface cover is predicted by 2050 from the analysis of yearly data, highlighting the critical need for water management interventions to safeguard oasis ecosystem and prevent desertification.

Abstract Image

研究地区:阿尔及利亚 Aurès 地区 Abiod 谷地。研究重点:这项工作的重点是传统绿洲的气候强迫与植被覆盖动态之间的关系。这项研究有两个主要目标:(1)通过卫星图像估算传统绿洲的植被表面覆盖率;(2)量化气候变量对植被动态的影响,并评估未来情景。我们提出了一种方法,利用卫星图像和衍生指数(NDVI、NDMI)来量化绿洲空间尺度上的植被覆盖和水压力事件。然后,我们通过基于向量自回归(VAR)和向量误差修正(VEC)模型的多元分析,评估了月度和年度尺度上气候与植被覆盖之间的反馈作用。对该地区的新水文见解:我们的研究结果表明,在过去十年中,该研究地区三个传统绿洲的植被覆盖率明显下降。月尺度分析表明,气候变量(尤其是累积降水量)对植被水分胁迫具有滞后效应。VEC对气候变量的长期预测与 GDDP-CMIP6 气候预测一致,预测平均气温和潜在蒸散量将上升。通过对年度数据的分析,预测到 2050 年植被表面覆盖率将大幅下降,这凸显了为保护绿洲生态系统和防止荒漠化而采取水资源管理干预措施的迫切需要。
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
8.50%
发文量
284
审稿时长
60 days
期刊介绍: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.
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