Evaluation of clinical benefits and economic value of weight loss in a Swedish population using a simulation model

IF 4.2 2区医学 Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

Obesity Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI:10.1002/oby.24232

Marije Galavazi, Ville Wallenius, Volker Schnecke, Åsa Ericsson, Helena Björklund, Johan Jendle

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Abstract

Objective

The objective of this study was to estimate the 10-year clinical benefits and economic value of weight loss in a Swedish population with obesity using a value of weight-loss simulation model.

Methods

Data on the prevalence of and costs associated with obesity and obesity-related complications (ORCs) were applied within an adapted simulation model to evaluate weight-loss benefits for a 2023 Swedish population over 10 years. The 10-year incidence of 10 ORCs and treatment costs in a random cohort of 10,000 individuals were estimated for a stable weight scenario and four weight-loss (5%–20%) scenarios.

Results

The model included 887,272 individuals with obesity aged 20 to 60 years. Hypertension (24.1%), asthma (20.9%), dyslipidemia (18.3%), and type 2 diabetes (10.6%) were highly prevalent. For 10,000 individuals, a 5% to 20% weight loss was estimated to prevent ORCs over 10 years, leading to annual savings between 9.0 million Swedish krona (SEK)/€0.8 million (5% weight loss) and 30.0 million SEK/€2.6 million (20%) by 2033.

Conclusions

Annual treatment costs of ORCs in Sweden will double over 10 years, and weight loss would be associated with significant savings because of the reductions in the incidence of ORCs. Therefore, there is an urgent need to effectively treat obesity to prevent morbidity.

Abstract Image

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使用模拟模型评估瑞典人群减肥的临床效益和经济价值。

目的：本研究的目的是利用减肥数值模拟模型估计瑞典肥胖人群减肥的10年临床效益和经济价值。方法：将肥胖和肥胖相关并发症（ORCs）的患病率和成本数据应用于适应性模拟模型中，以评估2023年瑞典人口10年以上的减肥效果。在1万名随机队列患者中，对体重稳定情景和体重减轻（5%-20%）情景的10年ORCs发病率和治疗费用进行了估计。结果：该模型包括887,272名年龄在20至60岁之间的肥胖患者。高血压（24.1%）、哮喘（20.9%）、血脂异常（18.3%）和2型糖尿病（10.6%）患病率较高。据估计，对于1万人来说，体重减轻5%至20%可以在10年内预防ORCs，到2033年，每年可节省900万瑞典克朗(SEK)/ 80万欧元（体重减轻5%）和3000万瑞典克朗/ 260万欧元（20%）。结论：瑞典ORCs的年治疗费用将在10年内翻一番，由于ORCs发病率的降低，体重减轻将带来显著的节省。因此，迫切需要对肥胖进行有效的治疗，防止其发病。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Obesity 医学-内分泌学与代谢

CiteScore

11.70

自引率

1.40%

发文量

261

审稿时长

2-4 weeks

期刊介绍： Obesity is the official journal of The Obesity Society and is the premier source of information for increasing knowledge, fostering translational research from basic to population science, and promoting better treatment for people with obesity. Obesity publishes important peer-reviewed research and cutting-edge reviews, commentaries, and public health and medical developments.