Impacts of spring freeze events on a perennial tree fruit crop across the central and eastern USA.

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 BIOPHYSICS
International Journal of Biometeorology Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-12 DOI:10.1007/s00484-025-02887-7
Ting Wang, Shiyuan Zhong, Jeffrey Andresen
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Abstract

This study uses a crop simulation model driven by 40 years (1981-2020) of daily gridded meteorological data from PRISM to assess the impacts of spring freeze events on cherry trees, a representative temperate perennial tree-fruit crop, across six regions of the central and eastern USA: the Northern and Southern Great Plains (NGP, SGP), Upper Midwest (UMW), Ohio Valley (OHV), New York-Pennsylvania (NY-PA), and Virginia-North Carolina (VA-NC). Freeze damage exhibits a clear latitudinal gradient, with damage frequency and severity decreasing from south to north. The most frequent and severe damage occurs in the SGP, followed by VA-NC, while the least is observed in the UMW and NY-PA. Damage frequency decreases as phenological stage advances, with the first two vegetative stages being the most affected. False spring events, defined as early side-green onset followed by freeze damage, mirror this spatial pattern and are more closely linked to the timing of side-green dates than to freeze-damage frequency. Trends in damage day frequency and severity show notable longitudinal variability, with decreasing trends in the lower OHV flanked by increasing trends in the SGP and VA-NC. Decreasing trends are also observed in northern parts of the UMW and NGP, though significant trends are limited to small areas. These patterns reflect the interplay between spring warm-up timing, phenological development, and seasonal vulnerability, modulated by sub-freezing temperature frequency and severity. The findings highlight the complexity of overwintering crops' responses to climate variability and the need for caution in assessing cold injury risks under future climate scenarios.

春季冰冻事件对美国中部和东部多年生果树作物的影响。
本研究利用PRISM的40年(1981-2020)日网格化气象数据驱动的作物模拟模型,评估了春季冻结事件对美国中东部6个地区樱桃树的影响。这些地区包括:大平原北部和南部(NGP, SGP)、中西部北部(UMW)、俄亥俄河谷(OHV)、纽约-宾夕法尼亚州(NY-PA)和弗吉尼亚-北卡罗来纳州(VA-NC)。冻害呈现明显的纬度梯度,冻害发生频率和严重程度由南向北递减。最常见和最严重的损伤发生在SGP,其次是VA-NC,而UMW和NY-PA最少。随着物候阶段的推进,损害频率降低,以前两个营养阶段受影响最大。假春事件,定义为早期侧绿开始,随后是冻害,反映了这种空间模式,与侧绿日期的时间联系更紧密,而不是冻害频率。损伤日频率和严重程度的趋势呈现出显著的纵向变异性,低OHV呈下降趋势,SGP和VA-NC呈上升趋势。UMW和NGP的北部地区也观察到减少的趋势,尽管明显的趋势仅限于小地区。这些模式反映了春季暖化时间、物候发育和季节脆弱性之间的相互作用,并受到低于冰点温度频率和严重程度的调节。这些发现强调了越冬作物对气候变化反应的复杂性,以及在未来气候情景下评估冷害风险时需要谨慎。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.40
自引率
9.40%
发文量
183
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: The Journal publishes original research papers, review articles and short communications on studies examining the interactions between living organisms and factors of the natural and artificial atmospheric environment. Living organisms extend from single cell organisms, to plants and animals, including humans. The atmospheric environment includes climate and weather, electromagnetic radiation, and chemical and biological pollutants. The journal embraces basic and applied research and practical aspects such as living conditions, agriculture, forestry, and health. The journal is published for the International Society of Biometeorology, and most membership categories include a subscription to the Journal.
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