Assessing the economic impact of droughts in Europe in a changing climate: A multi-sectoral analysis at regional scale

IF 4.7 2区地球科学 Q1 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI:10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102296

Corrado Motta , Gustavo Naumann , Diego Gomez , Giuseppe Formetta , Luc Feyen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Study region

The EU member states plus UK, Norway, and Switzerland.

Study Focus

In the recent past, Europe has faced several extreme drought events that have generated high economic losses across socioeconomic sectors. Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and intensity of these events. In order to increase drought resilience through adaptation it is essential to discern regional and sectoral drought risk patterns that account for the specific characteristics of local territories. In this study, we integrate drought hazard modelling with regional exposure mapping and vulnerability assessment to quantify drought impacts in drought-sensitive sectors across 1366 administrative territorial units of Europe, considering present climate conditions and a range of global warming levels.

New hydrological insights for the region

Our results show a strong regional disparity in future drought impacts, with an overall increase in drought losses in southern, south-eastern, and western regions of Europe and a decrease in northern regions. Regional differences are amplified with increasing global warming and depend on the intensity of the drought, modulated by the exposure and vulnerability of drought-sensitive socioeconomic sectors. In some of the most impacted regions, economic losses could become substantial, with expected annual losses corresponding to 1–2 % of regional gross domestic product, while the agriculture sector could lose 15 % of its gross value added with high levels of global warming.

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评估气候变化下欧洲干旱的经济影响：区域尺度上的多部门分析

研究区域：欧盟成员国加上英国、挪威和瑞士。最近，欧洲经历了几次极端干旱事件，给社会经济部门造成了巨大的经济损失。预计气候变化将改变这些事件的频率和强度。为了通过适应提高抗旱能力，必须辨别区域和部门的干旱风险模式，以说明当地领土的具体特征。在这项研究中，我们将干旱风险建模与区域暴露测绘和脆弱性评估相结合，在考虑当前气候条件和全球变暖水平的情况下，量化了欧洲1366个行政领土单位干旱敏感部门的干旱影响。我们的研究结果表明，未来干旱影响的区域差异很大，欧洲南部、东南部和西部地区的干旱损失总体上增加，而北部地区则减少。区域差异随着全球变暖的加剧而扩大，并取决于干旱的强度，受干旱敏感的社会经济部门的暴露和脆弱性的调节。在一些受影响最严重的地区，经济损失可能变得巨大，预计每年损失相当于该地区国内生产总值的1 - 2% %，而由于全球变暖程度高，农业部门的总增加值可能损失15% %。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

6.70

自引率

8.50%

发文量

284

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies publishes original research papers enhancing the science of hydrology and aiming at region-specific problems, past and future conditions, analysis, review and solutions. The journal particularly welcomes research papers that deliver new insights into region-specific hydrological processes and responses to changing conditions, as well as contributions that incorporate interdisciplinarity and translational science.