Visible prices and their influence on inflation expectations of Russian households

IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Vadim Grishchenko , Diana Gasanova , Egor Fomin
{"title":"Visible prices and their influence on inflation expectations of Russian households","authors":"Vadim Grishchenko ,&nbsp;Diana Gasanova ,&nbsp;Egor Fomin","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.02.015","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Currently, the Russian economy is undergoing a structural transformation followed by rising inflation and inflation expectations. In these circumstances, the mechanisms of inflation expectations formation is of utmost relevance. A multitude of recent research shows that the inflation expectations of households are far from rational. In making inflation forecasts, people tend to focus on the prices of particular goods and services, which they can observe every day – ‘visible prices’. In this paper, we propose a new method for the identification of such items. Our novel ‘brute force’ algorithm automatically sorts through the full array of prices of goods and services given by Rosstat and constructs consumer baskets. It then selects the best baskets based on their ability to forecast the inflation expectations of Russian households from the FOM Survey. In the end, we get a decomposition of various metrics of inflation expectations for visible prices which also demonstrates good forecasting performance (as compared to the AR(1) process as a benchmark). To ensure robustness, we use an alternative method (optimisation with regularisation) and a variety of metrics of inflation expectations. As a result, we get lists of ‘robust visible items’ which include not only foodstuffs but mainly durable goods and services. Surprisingly enough, gasoline, which is typically labelled ‘a visible good’ in research, does not fall into this category for Russia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 107-115"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X2500030X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Currently, the Russian economy is undergoing a structural transformation followed by rising inflation and inflation expectations. In these circumstances, the mechanisms of inflation expectations formation is of utmost relevance. A multitude of recent research shows that the inflation expectations of households are far from rational. In making inflation forecasts, people tend to focus on the prices of particular goods and services, which they can observe every day – ‘visible prices’. In this paper, we propose a new method for the identification of such items. Our novel ‘brute force’ algorithm automatically sorts through the full array of prices of goods and services given by Rosstat and constructs consumer baskets. It then selects the best baskets based on their ability to forecast the inflation expectations of Russian households from the FOM Survey. In the end, we get a decomposition of various metrics of inflation expectations for visible prices which also demonstrates good forecasting performance (as compared to the AR(1) process as a benchmark). To ensure robustness, we use an alternative method (optimisation with regularisation) and a variety of metrics of inflation expectations. As a result, we get lists of ‘robust visible items’ which include not only foodstuffs but mainly durable goods and services. Surprisingly enough, gasoline, which is typically labelled ‘a visible good’ in research, does not fall into this category for Russia.
可见价格及其对俄罗斯家庭通胀预期的影响
当前,俄罗斯经济正在经历结构性转型,随之而来的是通胀和通胀预期的上升。在这种情况下,通胀预期形成的机制至关重要。最近的大量研究表明,家庭的通胀预期远非理性。在进行通货膨胀预测时,人们倾向于关注他们每天都能观察到的特定商品和服务的价格——“可见价格”。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法来识别这些项目。我们新颖的“蛮力”算法自动对俄罗斯统计局给出的商品和服务的全部价格进行分类,并构建消费者篮子。然后,它根据他们预测FOM调查中俄罗斯家庭通胀预期的能力,选出最佳篮子。最后,我们对可见价格的各种通胀预期指标进行了分解,这也证明了良好的预测性能(与作为基准的AR(1)过程相比)。为了确保稳健性,我们使用了另一种方法(正则化优化)和各种通胀预期指标。因此,我们得到了“强劲有形商品”的清单,其中不仅包括食品,还主要包括耐用品和服务。令人惊讶的是,汽油在研究中通常被贴上“有形商品”的标签,但在俄罗斯却不属于这一类。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
4.90%
发文量
159
期刊介绍: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics publishes articles about theoretical, applied and methodological aspects of structural change in economic systems. The journal publishes work analysing dynamics and structural breaks in economic, technological, behavioural and institutional patterns.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信