How is adaptation intention shaped in urban Pakistan? A multigroup gender analysis

Abstract

Men and women's choice and ability to respond to climate change is shaped by multiple, intersecting factors, including gender roles, power dynamics, socio-economic variables, psychological processes, and systemic inequalities. This study is the first to examine gendered differences in climate change adaptation intentions in urban Pakistan, using survey data from 552 men and women in two urban towns. Using multigroup structural equation modeling and drawing on the analytical frameworks of Protection Motivation Theory and intersectionality, we explored different factors that influence individual adaptation decisions. Findings reveal distinct gender patterns: men's adaptation intentions are strongly influenced by a belief in climate change, perceptions of climate change impacts, and belief in governmental support, whereas women are less influenced by these factors and show negative responses to perceived government support. Furthermore, maladaptive beliefs hinder men's adaptation intentions, with minimal effect on women. Age and education positively correlate with men's adaptation intentions but not with women's. Gendered adaptation intentions are shaped by socio-economic factors, patriarchal norms, resource constraints, and psychological factors. Climate adaptation programs and strategies should not only engage women but also strategically address the broader power dynamics and systemic inequities that hinder adaptive capacities of marginalized groups. Recommendations include developing gender-responsive and transformative policies and programs, enhancing institutional trust through accountability mechanisms, promoting community-driven initiatives, and investing in women's everyday adaptation strategies. This approach is key to building stronger resilience and enabling inclusive, impactful climate solutions in Pakistan's rapidly growing urban centers.