Shaping China's carbon peak roadmaps: A dynamic model for provincial residential buildings

Abstract

Collaborative emission reduction in the provincial residential building sector is crucial for achieving China's “Dual Carbon” goal. However, existing research failed to clearly depict the provincial residential buildings carbon peak roadmaps or adequately account for future uncertainties, thereby hindering the formulation of effective provincial carbon control targets and collaborative emission reduction strategies. This study develops a provincial-level residential building carbon peak dynamic simulation model, integrating an improved Kaya identity, Monte Carlo simulation, and scenario analysis. The model incorporates peaking time, size constraints, and uncertainties in key variables to capture inter-provincial variations in urban and rural residential building carbon emissions and support the formulation of provincial roadmaps. Results show that under strict carbon reduction policies, both urban and rural residential buildings experience earlier and lower peak carbon emissions. In the business-as-usual scenario, the peak value for urban residential building carbon emissions (UBC) ranges from 3.63 MtCO₂ in Hainan to 97.89 MtCO₂ in Shandong, with Ningxia peaking as early as 2007. For rural residential building carbon emissions (RBC), peaking time range from 2026 to 2036, with values between 2.03 and 53.97 MtCO₂. Dynamic simulation results suggest RBC will peak before 2030, while UBC will peak later, around 2034, with values ranging from 751.46 to 799.56 MtCO₂. Provincial policies significantly influence peak times. In Henan and Shandong, the policies delay UBC peaks, whereas in Hainan and Beijing, they accelerate RBC peaks. This study offers valuable insights for developing differentiated carbon peak roadmaps and formulating targeted policy recommendations.