Risk Perception and Risk Communication: Multi-Actor Perspectives on Pretrial Decision-Making

Abstract

As jurisdictions across the United States implement pretrial risk assessments to advance pretrial reform, there has been a limited research focus on factors affecting risk assessment-guided decision-making. To advance this work, this study examined: (1) differences in perceptions of risk and utility of risk assessment information by criminal-legal role; (2) whether static or variable risk assessment presentation affected pretrial release decisions, including the moderating role of offense violence; and (3) factors affecting risk assessment-guided decision-making more broadly. Vignettes were issued to 298 judges, pretrial officers, prosecutors, and defense attorneys across the United States with random assignment to a one-value probability (30%, 40%, or 50%) or a range of probabilities (30%–50%) risk estimate. Findings showed that risk assessment presentation did not affect decision-making, and decision-makers either subjectively interpreted the risk assessment value or created their own risk criteria. Results necessitate more training for pretrial decision-makers on interpreting risk assessment information.