Transition to near-zero emission shipping fleet powered by alternative fuels under uncertainty

IF 7.3 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104689

Yadong Wang , Çağatay Iris

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Achieving a transition to a near-zero emission shipping requires deploying ships which are powered by low- or zero-carbon alternative fuels. This study delivers a transition plan for the fleet, including the selection of fuel type (among diesel, bio-LNG, bio-methanol and ng-ammonia) for each ship, and determining the number and sizes of ships to add or remove from the fleet in each time period through ship purchasing, chartering and retrofitting, so as to operate the resulting fleet at minimum net cost considering emissions, investment and operating costs and revenues under uncertainty. Results indicate that a single fuel cannot dominate the future. The transition from diesel to bio-methanol is favourable when life-cycle (well-to-wake) emissions are considered, whereas transition from diesel to ng-ammonia dominates when tank-to-wake emissions are considered. In the scenarios where emission costs are high, total emissions are reduced primarily thanks to chartering and retrofitting depending on the ship size.

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.