Multidimensional comparative analysis of future climate change impacts on pavement infrastructure aging

Abstract

This study examines how rising temperatures affect asphalt pavement aging, long-term performance, and maintenance costs across four cities under medium and high emissions scenarios during historical and future periods (2025–2099). The results show that a 1℃ increase in average temperature facilitates asphalt pavement aging rate by 3% to 4%, significantly increasing pavement damage, maintenance frequency and costs. For instance, maintenance costs in New Delhi are projected to increase by up to 22.2% under SSP585 compared to historical period. Global road maintenance costs are projected to rise by $16.5–$33.0 billion, with U.S. costs increasing by $0.5–$1.0 billion. High-performance mixes, such as polymer-modified asphalt, can effectively mitigate the impact of future climate change by improving asphalt elasticity and slowing its aging process, thereby reducing the maintenance frequency and costs. Although their higher initial material cost may present economic trade-offs, the extended service life and reduced maintenance costs can offset these costs. Policymakers can utilize these findings to optimize maintenance investments, while engineers may adopt adaptive designs or materials to reduce climate-related impacts on road infrastructure.