An event-driven modeling methodology of situation awareness: Towards emergency response process in fire-induced domino scenario

Abstract

The fire-induced domino scenario in chemical industry park will cause catastrophic consequences because of the various combinations of space-scale accident scenarios and complex evolutionary contingencies. Previous studies on domino effects focus on pre-accident prevention, while limited studies considering the safety protection to firefighters from the domino effects in emergency response are presented. Based on spatial-temporal characteristics of fire-induced domino scenario evolution, situation awareness (SA) is adopted, and the hierarchical application scheme of SA is designed to combine information-rich fire domino scenario and the decision-making of emergency response. Simultaneously, the fatality risk (FR) is selected as the critical objective; the fatality risk considering the synergistic effects is comprehended; an event-driven prediction of SA based on the state transition mechanism analyzed by the event tree analysis (ETA) is proposed, and the time-dependent and spatial-distributed fatality risk of conventional domino accidents and complex Natech events can be mapped through intuitive visualization. The results show that the evolution of the domino effect has a strong temporal-spatial correlation, and the proposed method demonstrates a certain level of reliability in analyzing results, which can help firefighters make decision and take actions to ensure their safety.