Quantitative risk model and safety assessment of flammable working fluid leakage and explosion in a limited space

IF 3.6 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL
Jian Li, Zhao Yang, Hongxia He, Changzhen Guo, Yubo Chen, Yong Zhang
{"title":"Quantitative risk model and safety assessment of flammable working fluid leakage and explosion in a limited space","authors":"Jian Li,&nbsp;Zhao Yang,&nbsp;Hongxia He,&nbsp;Changzhen Guo,&nbsp;Yubo Chen,&nbsp;Yong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2025.105620","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At present, to ensure the secure utilization of flammable working fluids, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue. In this study, information diffusion, Markov, and Monte Carlo simulation methodologies are employed to develop a probability-based risk model based on combined forecasting and modifying techniques for quantitative risk assessment, focusing on scenarios involving the leakage and explosion of flammable working fluids within limited spaces. This model comprises three distinct components, designed to evaluate leakage and explosion accidents through information diffusion processing of existing accident data, probability proportion calculation based on Markov time series forecasts, and Monte Carlo simulation of leakage conditions and environmental parameters. The case study of the refrigeration systems indicates that, despite the comparatively higher likelihood of igniting for larger leakage scales, the danger of explosion under small leaks is higher due to the high order of magnitude of leakage. As the degree of leakage increases, the risk of explosion escalates considerably, potentially exceeding the risk tolerance range, necessitating the adoption of appropriate risk control measures. The risk results associated with flammable working fluids are compared under identical leakage conditions, revealing that the risk of mixed working fluids in a limited space is largely dependent on the ratio of leaked components. Although the addition of flame retardants to flammable working fluids proves to be an effective risk mitigation measure, it needs to be integrated with consideration of the charge mass in the refrigeration system. Furthermore, the consequences of an explosion can be evaluated using the overpressure model to assess the probability of damage to personnel and buildings. On this basis, the model offers the ability to provide quantitative risk mitigation strategies, and the validation of its calculation outcomes through comparison highlights its applicability across diverse scenarios, particularly in limited space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 105620"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423025000786","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

At present, to ensure the secure utilization of flammable working fluids, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue. In this study, information diffusion, Markov, and Monte Carlo simulation methodologies are employed to develop a probability-based risk model based on combined forecasting and modifying techniques for quantitative risk assessment, focusing on scenarios involving the leakage and explosion of flammable working fluids within limited spaces. This model comprises three distinct components, designed to evaluate leakage and explosion accidents through information diffusion processing of existing accident data, probability proportion calculation based on Markov time series forecasts, and Monte Carlo simulation of leakage conditions and environmental parameters. The case study of the refrigeration systems indicates that, despite the comparatively higher likelihood of igniting for larger leakage scales, the danger of explosion under small leaks is higher due to the high order of magnitude of leakage. As the degree of leakage increases, the risk of explosion escalates considerably, potentially exceeding the risk tolerance range, necessitating the adoption of appropriate risk control measures. The risk results associated with flammable working fluids are compared under identical leakage conditions, revealing that the risk of mixed working fluids in a limited space is largely dependent on the ratio of leaked components. Although the addition of flame retardants to flammable working fluids proves to be an effective risk mitigation measure, it needs to be integrated with consideration of the charge mass in the refrigeration system. Furthermore, the consequences of an explosion can be evaluated using the overpressure model to assess the probability of damage to personnel and buildings. On this basis, the model offers the ability to provide quantitative risk mitigation strategies, and the validation of its calculation outcomes through comparison highlights its applicability across diverse scenarios, particularly in limited space.
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
14.30%
发文量
226
审稿时长
52 days
期刊介绍: The broad scope of the journal is process safety. Process safety is defined as the prevention and mitigation of process-related injuries and damage arising from process incidents involving fire, explosion and toxic release. Such undesired events occur in the process industries during the use, storage, manufacture, handling, and transportation of highly hazardous chemicals.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信