Predicting post-hepatectomy liver failure using a nomogram based on portal vein width, inflammatory indices, and the albumin-bilirubin score.

Abstract

Background: Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) after liver resection is one of the main complications causing postoperative death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It is crucial to help clinicians identify potential high-risk PHLF patients as early as possible through preoperative evaluation.

Aim: To identify risk factors for PHLF and develop a prediction model.

Methods: This study included 248 patients with HCC at The Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University between January 2014 and December 2023; these patients were divided into a training group (n = 164) and a validation group (n = 84) via random sampling. The independent variables for the occurrence of PHLF were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses and visualized as nomograms. Ultimately, comparisons were made with traditional models via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: In this study, portal vein width [odds ratio (OR) = 1.603, 95%CI: 1.288-1.994, P ≤ 0.001], the preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR = 1.495, 95%CI: 1.126-1.984, P = 0.005), and the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score (OR = 8.868, 95%CI: 2.144-36.678, P = 0.003) were independent risk factors for PHLF. A nomogram prediction model was developed using these factors. ROC and DCA analyses revealed that the predictive efficacy and clinical value of this model were better than those of traditional models.

Conclusion: A new Nomogram model for predicting PHLF in HCC patients was successfully established based on portal vein width, the NLR, and the ALBI score, which outperforms the traditional model.