Estimating the effects of hypothetical ambient PM_2.5 interventions on the risk of dementia using the parametric g-formula in the UK Biobank cohort.

IF 10.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Health Perspectives Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1289/EHP14723

Chengyi Lin, Riyang Liu, Caroline Sutton, Andrew Thomas DeWan, Laura Forastiere, Kai Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Emerging evidence identifies ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5μm (PM_2.5) as a modifiable risk factor for dementia, but the potential health benefits gained by enacting regulations that reduce PM_2.5 remain unclear.

Objectives: Our aim was to estimate the total effects of hypothetical ambient PM_2.5 interventions starting in late life on the risk of dementia in a cohort using the parametric g-formula.

Methods: We used data from 291,495 participants in the UK Biobank cohort who were free of dementia and aged ≥ 55 years at baseline (2010). We estimated the total effects of hypothetical ambient PM_2.5 interventions (achieving annual average standards of 12 μg/m³, 10 μg/m³, and 9 μg/m³) from 2010 to 2019 on the risk of dementia by calculating the difference between the estimated 10-year risk of dementia under a specified hypothetical intervention and the risk under no intervention using the parametric g-formula.

Results: Compared with no intervention, the estimated 10-year risk difference of dementia was -0.54 per 1000 population (95%CI: -1.00, -0.10), -1.36 per 1000 population (95%CI: -2.44, -0.25), -1.92 per 1000 population (95%CI: -3.39, -0.33), with PM_2.5 interventions achieving annual average standards of 12 μg/m³, 10 μg/m³, and 9 μg/m³, respectively.

Discussion: The estimated 10-year risk of dementia decreased if the individual ambient PM_2.5 exposure was reduced due to more stringent PM_2.5 standards in late life compared to the natural course without intervention on ambient PM_2.5 exposure. Our findings, obtained using the parametric g-formula - a causal inference method that can directly evaluate the impact of hypothetical interventions - suggest that policies reducing ambient PM_2.5 pollution may lower the risk of dementia among UK Biobank participants who would experience more stringent ambient PM_2.5 standards in late life. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14723.

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来源期刊

Environmental Health Perspectives 环境科学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

2.90%

发文量

388

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Health Perspectives (EHP) is a monthly peer-reviewed journal supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, part of the National Institutes of Health under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Its mission is to facilitate discussions on the connections between the environment and human health by publishing top-notch research and news. EHP ranks third in Public, Environmental, and Occupational Health, fourth in Toxicology, and fifth in Environmental Sciences.