Inflated Negative Impacts of Temperature On Global Agricultural Yields Due To Ozone Omission

Abstract

Climate change and ozone pollution are critical factors affecting global agricultural productivity. Meanwhile, current studies tend to overestimate the negative effects of warming on crop yields due to the influence of neglecting ozone effects. Here, by combining various observations, statistical crop models, and Earth system model projections, we reveal that the omitting ozone effects leads to a significant inflation of the damaging impacts of warming on global agricultural yields. For example, comparing with previous model, our model shows that the mid-century global warming impacts can decline by 1.99% (95% CI: 1.79%–3.24%) and 2.53% (95% CI: 2.03%–5.27%) for maize and soybean, respectively. Our findings indicate that incorporating ozone in statistical models is crucial for accurately assessing agricultural yield responses to temperature as well as projecting future climate change impacts on yields. This study contributes to a more holistic understanding of the intricate interactions between climate change, air pollution, and global crop production.