A novel assessment framework for analyzing the sustainability of water-energy-food nexus system from a pressure-support perspective

Abstract

Quantifying the sustainability of water-energy-food nexus system provides essential support for addressing climate change and resource scarcity. However, prior research has neglected to link the sustainability of water-energy-food nexus system to the Sustainable Development Goals and the fact that the system itself is in an unsustainable state due to pressure overload. Based on the complex feedback relationships between subsystems, a sustainability assessment framework for water-energy-food nexus system is proposed from a pressure-support perspective by integrating the Sustainable Development Goal 2, 6 and 7. Entropy and catastrophe progression method, kernel density estimation, Markov chain and Tobit model are employed to examine its effectiveness by taking the Yellow River Basin in China as a case. The outcomes indicate that, the pressure index was greater than the support index for water-energy-food nexus system in the provinces along the basin except Shandong province from 2005 to 2021. The sustainable development index within the basin increased from 0.854 in 2005 to 0.917 in 2021, but was less than 1. It is characterized by fluctuating growth, with widening differences between regions. Water-energy-food nexus system was still in an unsustainable state. The ability of the lower reach to achieve sustainability far exceeded that of the upper and middle reaches. From spatial distribution, it showed a spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”, with spatial correlation effect showing “club convergence” characteristic. Foreign trade level, technological progress level, environmental regulation capacity, industrialization level, infrastructure level and rural living standard made significant contributions to improving sustainability level with marginal impacts of 0.121, 0.328, 0.604, 0.233, 0.674 and 0.083, respectively, while urbanization level had an inhibitory effect with marginal impact of −0.255. These findings provide policy guidance for the region to enhance sustainable governance of water-energy-food nexus system.