Assessing biomass production and electricity generation potential in current and future decarbonization scenarios in Cuba until 2050

Abstract

This paper discusses the current and prospective potential of biomass production and electricity generation in Cuba, focusing on a wide spectrum of biomass sources. It analyzes the availability of these biomass resources for energy generation through biochemical and thermochemical conversion, emphasizing their role in Cuba’s energy transition and decarbonization efforts by 2050. This paper highlighted the need to identify viable opportunities for valorizing electricity generation from biomass wastes at commercial scales, which requires further research and discussion to build energy models and scenarios. The adopted methodology allows a comprehensive assessment of Cuba’s bio-energy potential, considering different scenarios until 2050. For the first time, it presents a method that evaluates the theoretical, technical, and economic potentials of various biomass sources, applied to Cuba as a study case. The paper performs a prospective analysis for 2035 to 2050, considering increased agricultural yields, agro-industrial production, and electricity demand. The results suggest that biomass could contribute significantly to Cuba’s future energy needs, potentially generating up to 57% to 100% of the country’s electricity demand in the 2035 and 2050 scenarios respectively. This study identifies that the most feasible biomass sources for electricity generation in Cuba include food industry residues, livestock manure, and municipal solid waste (MSW). The total biomass availability is projected to increase significantly by 88% compared to the current scenario, reaching approximately 1,020,000.0 tons per year by 2050. Cuba’s biomass potential represents a contribution considerably higher than the current biomass electricity generation, which stands at approximately 1.75%. By investing in sustainable agricultural development, biomass electricity generation technologies, and fostering collaborative efforts among government, industry, and communities, we can not only meet our future energy demands but also drive economic growth and environmental sustainability.