Structural analysis and robustness assessment of global LNG transport network from 2013 to 2023

Abstract

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a critical component of the global sustainable energy industry, with substantial implications for global energy development. Although the maritime transportation system has played an important role in promoting global LNG trade, it remains highly vulnerable to international political events, major disasters, and other emergencies. To better understand the robustness and security of the global LNG transport system, this study provides a new analysis paradigm for evaluating the robustness of the LNG transport network in the face of disruptive events. We examine a variety of network parameters for the global LNG transport network between 2013 and 2023 to capture changes in topological structure and evolution. Then, we introduce three centrality indices which can capture distinct characteristics of the maritime ports including connectivity, transfer, and cohesion, and combine these three centralities into a TOPSIS framework to achieve a multidimensional port centrality for identifying essential ports. Finally, we evaluate the robustness of the LNG transport network against several sequential intentional attacks using diverse strategies. We found that we can loosely separate the collapse process of the LNG transport network into three stages: initial collapse, ongoing fragmentation, and final collapse. In 2013, intentional attacks based on degrees and TOPSIS centralities were the most likely to cause the LNG transport network to collapse. In 2023, intentional attacks based on betweenness and TOPSIS centralities are the most likely to cause the LNG transport network to collapse, and the LNG transport network is more robust than it was in 2013.