Heat and mobility: Machine learning perspectives on bike-sharing resilience in Shanghai

IF 7.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104692

Zeyin Chen , Renlu Qiao , Siying Li , Shiqi Zhou , Xiuning Zhang , Zhiqiang Wu , Tao Wu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Global climate change has increased extreme heat events, impacting urban mobility, particularly bike-sharing. This study examines the urban mobility resilience (UMR) of bike-sharing to extreme heat in Shanghai’s urban center, analyzing how the built environment and other factors influence UMR through machine learning. The model has an explanatory power of 73.5% and 63.7% on weekdays and weekends. Results indicate that extreme heat has a stronger effect on weekends. Key factors like development intensity, public transportation accessibility, and functional diversity positively affect resilience, with building density increases from 0 to 0.3 promoting UMR by nearly 0.1 (out of 1). Proximity to metro stations (within 1,000–1,500 m) also promotes resilience. The reasonable aggregation of socio-economic factors can also effectively enhance resilience. However, greening and road density sometimes play a negative role. The research provides more references for urban planners and managers to customize strategies to enhance UMR in the context of climate change.

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热与交通：上海共享单车弹性的机器学习视角

全球气候变化增加了极端高温事件，影响了城市交通，尤其是共享单车。本研究考察了上海市中心城区共享单车对极端高温的城市交通弹性（UMR），通过机器学习分析了建筑环境等因素对UMR的影响。模型在工作日和周末的解释能力分别为73.5%和63.7%。结果表明，极端高温对周末的影响更大。开发强度、公共交通可达性和功能多样性等关键因素对弹性有积极影响，建筑密度从0增加到0.3，使UMR提高了近0.1（满分为1）。靠近地铁站（在1000 - 1500米范围内）也促进了弹性。社会经济因素的合理集聚也能有效增强韧性。然而，绿化和道路密度有时会起到负面作用。该研究为气候变化背景下城市规划者和管理者制定增强城市城市资源管理的策略提供了更多参考。

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.