Energy prices, inflation, and distribution: A simulation model and policy analysis for Italy

IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Marco Stamegna , Simone D'Alessandro
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The surge in energy prices following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered the most significant inflation in advanced economies in recent decades. Using the Eurogreen model for the Italian economy, we examine the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of rising energy prices alongside two policy measures: wage indexation and a temporary housing rent cap. We compare policy scenarios with a baseline reflecting the observed price shocks. We find that: i) energy price shocks disproportionately affect lower-income individuals due to the larger share of energy goods in their consumption baskets; ii) wage indexation results in higher average real wages compared to the baseline scenario, without triggering inflation acceleration, while temporarily boosting output and employment by supporting aggregate demand; iii) a temporary housing rent cap improves distribution in workers’ favor while reducing inflation; iv) both policies have a more substantial effect for low-skilled workers; and v) best outcomes appear when these policies are jointly implemented.
能源价格、通货膨胀和分配:意大利的模拟模型和政策分析
俄乌冲突后能源价格飙升,引发了发达经济体近几十年来最严重的通胀。使用Eurogreen意大利经济模型,我们研究了能源价格上涨对宏观经济和分配的影响,以及两项政策措施:工资指数值化和临时住房租金上限。我们将政策情景与反映观察到的价格冲击的基线进行了比较。我们发现:1)能源价格冲击对低收入人群的影响不成比例,因为能源商品在他们的消费篮子中所占的份额更大;Ii)工资指数值化导致平均实际工资高于基准情景,而不会引发通胀加速,同时通过支持总需求暂时提振产出和就业;Iii)临时住房租金上限改善了有利于工人的分配,同时降低了通货膨胀;Iv)两项政策对低技能工人的影响更大;5)当这些政策得到共同实施时,会出现最佳结果。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
4.90%
发文量
159
期刊介绍: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics publishes articles about theoretical, applied and methodological aspects of structural change in economic systems. The journal publishes work analysing dynamics and structural breaks in economic, technological, behavioural and institutional patterns.
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